The Effects of the U.S. Trade Engagements on the Demographic and Spatial Distribution of Employment and Earnings

AbstractThis project will provide insight into labour market implications of alternative trade policies by highlighting the roles of multiple trade engagement channels，workers mobility responses，and price adjustments. 特别是，这一项目将产生一个更全面的帐户的收入和就业的反应，对最近的变化，在国际贸易环境中的工人和公司类型的定义组合的特点，如区域，行业，工人以前的收入，公司规模和平均工资。 该项目还将提供一组关于不同类型贸易参与的企业之间的就业构成和收入分配的新颖程式化事实。该项目将汇集一个数据库，将美国匹配的雇主-雇员记录（包括工人人口统计数据和工资）与所有企业进出口行为的企业一级海关记录联系起来。该项目还将开发一个双边分配模型，该模型可以在许多相互关联的劳动力市场中容纳丰富的工人分类模式，这些劳动力市场由大量不完全可替代的工人类型定义。 这一模型将包括进口竞争者、出口商、能够购买廉价投入品的下游企业、能够重新配置供应链的跨国公司以及通过重叠劳动力市场间接受到影响的非贸易企业的员工之间劳动力需求水平和构成的变化。 最后，本项目将利用估算的模型，模拟反事实情景，将替代性贸易政策对就业的均衡影响以及许多工人和企业类型之间的收入分配隔离开来。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

AbstractThis project will provide insight into the labor market implications of alternative trade policies by highlighting the roles of multiple trade engagement channels, worker mobility responses, and price adjustments. In particular, this project will generate a more comprehensive account of the earnings and employment responses to recent changes in the international trade environment among worker and firm types defined by combinations of characteristics such as region, industry, worker prior earnings, firm size and average pay. The project will also provide a set of novel stylized facts about employment composition and earnings distributions among firms featuring different types of trade engagement.This project will assemble a database that links the near universe of U.S. matched employer-employee records featuring worker demographics and pay with both firm-level customs records on all firms' export and import behavior. The project will also develop a two-sided assignment model that accommodates a rich pattern of sorting of workers to firms and market clearing in many interrelated labor markets defined by a large set of imperfectly substitutable worker types. This model will incorporate changes in the level and composition of labor demand among import competitors but also exporters, downstream firms able to buy cheaper inputs, multinationals able to reconfigure their supply chains, and employees from non-trading firms that are affected indirectly through overlapping labor markets. Finally, using the estimated model, this project will produce simulations of counterfactual scenarios that isolate the equilibrium impact of alternative trade policies on employment and the earnings distribution among many worker and firm types.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.