The Effects of the U.S. Trade Engagements on the Demographic and Spatial Distribution of Employment and Earnings

摘要本项目将通过强调多种贸易参与渠道、工人流动反应和价格调整的作用，深入了解替代贸易政策对劳动力市场的影响。特别是，这个项目将更全面地说明工人和公司类型对国际贸易环境最近变化的收入和就业反应，这些变化是由区域、行业、工人以前的收入、公司规模和平均工资等特征组合而定的。该项目还将提供一套关于就业构成和具有不同类型贸易参与的公司之间收入分配的新颖的程式化事实。该项目将建立一个数据库，将美国几乎所有匹配的雇主-雇员记录（包括工人人口统计和薪酬）与所有公司进出口行为的公司层面海关记录联系起来。该项目还将开发一种双边分配模型，以适应在许多相互关联的劳动力市场中对企业和市场出清的工人进行分类的丰富模式，这些劳动力市场由大量不完全可替代的工人类型定义。该模型将包括进口竞争对手、出口商、能够购买更廉价投入的下游公司、能够重新配置供应链的跨国公司以及受重叠劳动力市场间接影响的非贸易公司员工之间劳动力需求水平和构成的变化。最后，使用估计模型，本项目将产生反事实情景的模拟，这些情景隔离了替代贸易政策对就业和许多工人和企业类型之间的收入分配的均衡影响。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

AbstractThis project will provide insight into the labor market implications of alternative trade policies by highlighting the roles of multiple trade engagement channels, worker mobility responses, and price adjustments. In particular, this project will generate a more comprehensive account of the earnings and employment responses to recent changes in the international trade environment among worker and firm types defined by combinations of characteristics such as region, industry, worker prior earnings, firm size and average pay. The project will also provide a set of novel stylized facts about employment composition and earnings distributions among firms featuring different types of trade engagement.This project will assemble a database that links the near universe of U.S. matched employer-employee records featuring worker demographics and pay with both firm-level customs records on all firms' export and import behavior. The project will also develop a two-sided assignment model that accommodates a rich pattern of sorting of workers to firms and market clearing in many interrelated labor markets defined by a large set of imperfectly substitutable worker types. This model will incorporate changes in the level and composition of labor demand among import competitors but also exporters, downstream firms able to buy cheaper inputs, multinationals able to reconfigure their supply chains, and employees from non-trading firms that are affected indirectly through overlapping labor markets. Finally, using the estimated model, this project will produce simulations of counterfactual scenarios that isolate the equilibrium impact of alternative trade policies on employment and the earnings distribution among many worker and firm types.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.