RAPID: The Impact of COVID-19 on Job Loss and Job Creation

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This research project will use anonymized real time cellular phone location data combined with other sources of data to investigate the employment effects of the COVID19 pandemic. The research will develop an innovative theoretical model of job destruction and job creation, at the granular level, in response to the pandemic and use the data assembled to estimate the model. The model does not only account for job destruction and creation at various locations but also changes in the types of jobs created as well as the changing industries in which the jobs are created at the various locations. The new model is likely to influence how researchers investigate the effects of pandemics on employment at various locations. The research results will provide important inputs into how to craft policies to counter the employment effects the current as well as future pandemics particularly, and economic disruptions generally. The results will also establish the US as the global leader in understanding the employment effects of pandemics and how to develop policies to reduce their effects.This research project builds on existing high frequency anonymized cellular telephone data at the MTI to investigate the job destruction and job creation effects of COVID19. The PIs will combine the MTI data with other data sources (e.g. HERE, QCEW, etc.) and use the data and Dingell & Nieman method to construct occupational composition indices based on all 968 Occupational Employment Survey (OES) that allows for teleworking at various locations. The PIs will develop a model of job destruction and job destruction of the various job categories at particular locations. The PIs will then use the indices based on the data constructed to estimate the job destruction/creation model at the granular level. The panel structure of the data allows the PIs to study the short term as well as the long term employment effects of economic shocks. Besides the methodological innovation in this study, the results will also provide guidance on policies to counter the effects of the current and possibly future pandemics. The results will also establish the US as the global leader in understanding the employment effects of pandemics and how to develop policies to reduce its effects.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.