Advances in behavioral decision analytics: Theory, Applications, and Training

行为决策分析的进展：理论、应用和培训

• 批准号: 2049896
• 负责人: Michel Regenwetter
• 金额: $ 58.5万
• 依托单位: University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2021
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2021-06-15 至 2025-05-31
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2049896&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Advances; behavioral; decision; analytics; Theory

This project aims to help next-generation DRMS research reduce its reliance on technical modeling assumptions that could bias or jeopardize the interpretability and replicability of its findings. The key idea is to leverage heterogeneity of behavior as an asset rather than treating it as a nuisance. Directly connecting theories to variability over time, across contexts, and between decision makers, will better attune management and policy to both commonalities and differences in behavior across hundreds of millions of people, leading to greater societal relevance. The grant also aims to better conceptualize, define, and understand the scope of decision theories. Enhancing theoretical scope means expanding policy coverage: A broader and deeper perspective paves the way for applied DRMS-related professionals to support the well-being of a larger portion of the population at more times and in more contexts.The project features theoretical, analytical, empirical, and training components. The proposed research develops new tools and models to better understand strength of preference, new open-source public-domain analytics software, novel methods for adapting decision-making experiments dynamically during data collection, and innovative approaches toward conceptualizing, defining, and assessing the scope of decision theories. These innovations both inform and build on empirical work that looks more closely at heterogeneity of behavior and context-dependence. The project considers how ethical/moral foundations interact with evidence weighing, how framing interacts with probabilistic inference, how risk and time synergize, as well as novel ways to compare individual and collective decision making. The training component focuses on next-generation DRMS scholars by training junior scholars in summer schools, following-up with collaborative, research-based training jointly with their home labs, and facilitating dedicated dissemination of the trainees’ research projects.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

该项目旨在帮助下一代DRMS研究减少对技术建模假设的依赖，这些假设可能会导致或危及其研究结果的可解释性和可复制性。关键想法是将行为的异质性作为一种资产来利用，而不是将其视为一种滋扰。将理论与随时间变化、跨环境变化以及决策者之间的变化直接联系起来，将更好地使管理和政策适应数亿人行为的共性和差异，从而产生更大的社会相关性。该补助金还旨在更好地概念化，定义和理解决策理论的范围。提高理论范围意味着扩大政策覆盖面：一个更广泛和更深入的视角为DRMS相关的应用专业人士铺平了道路，以支持更大比例的人口在更多的时间和更多的情况下的福祉。该项目具有理论，分析，实证和培训组成部分。拟议的研究开发了新的工具和模型，以更好地理解偏好的强度，新的开源公共领域分析软件，在数据收集过程中动态调整决策实验的新方法，以及概念化，定义和评估决策理论范围的创新方法。这些创新都通知和建立在经验工作，更密切地关注行为和上下文依赖的异质性。该项目考虑了伦理/道德基础如何与证据权衡相互作用，框架如何与概率推理相互作用，风险和时间如何协同作用，以及比较个人和集体决策的新方法。培训部分的重点是下一代DRMS学者，通过在暑期学校培训初级学者，与他们的家庭实验室联合进行合作，研究为基础的培训，并促进学员研究项目的专门传播。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

项目成果

Four Internal Inconsistencies in Tversky and Kahneman’s (1992) Cumulative Prospect Theory Article: A Case Study in Ambiguous Theoretical Scope and Ambiguous Parsimony

特沃斯基和卡尼曼 (1992) 累积前景理论文章中的四个内部不一致：模糊理论范围和模糊简约的案例研究

• DOI: 10.1177/25152459221074653
• 发表时间: 2022
• 期刊: Advances in Methods and Practices in Psychological Science
• 影响因子: 13.6
• 作者: Regenwetter, Michel;Robinson, Maria M.;Wang, Cihang
• 通讯作者: Wang, Cihang

Are You an Exception to Your Favorite Decision Theory? Behavioral Decision Research Is a Linda Problem!

• DOI: 10.1037/dec0000161
• 发表时间: 2022-01-13
• 期刊: DECISION-WASHINGTON
• 影响因子: 1.5
• 作者: Regenwetter，Michel;Robinson，Maria M.;Wang，Cihang
• 通讯作者: Wang，Cihang

Order-constrained inference to supplement experimental data analytics in behavioral economics: A motivational case study

• DOI: 10.1016/j.socec.2023.102116
• 发表时间: 2023-10-13
• 期刊: JOURNAL OF BEHAVIORAL AND EXPERIMENTAL ECONOMICS
• 影响因子: 1.6
• 作者: Ludwig，Jonas;Cavagnaro，Daniel R.;Regenwetter，Michel
• 通讯作者: Regenwetter，Michel

Reply to commentaries: Why should we worry about scientific conjunction fallacies?

回复评论：我们为什么要担心科学合取谬误？

• DOI: 10.1037/dec0000176
• 发表时间: 2022
• 期刊: Decision
• 影响因子: 1.5
• 作者: Regenwetter, Michel;Robinson, Maria M.
• 通讯作者: Robinson, Maria M.

Probabilistic Choice Induced by Strength of Preference

• DOI: 10.1007/s42113-023-00176-3
• 发表时间: 2023-09
• 期刊: Computational Brain & Behavior
• 作者: Daniel R. Cavagnaro;Michel Regenwetter