Collaborative Research: A Workshop on Pre-emergence and the Predictions of Rare Events in Multiscale, Complex, Dynamical Systems

协作研究：多尺度、复杂、动态系统中出现前和罕见事件的预测研讨会

• 批准号: 2114503
• 负责人: James Moody
• 金额: $ 1万
• 依托单位: Duke University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2021
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2021-02-01 至 2023-01-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2114503&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; Workshop; Pre; emergence

Although pandemics have threatened human civilization since ancient times, how to predict and prevent them remains one of the most pressing challenges, calling out for innovative insights and practices. Pandemics emerge through incidental ‘perfect storms’: molecular changes in pathogens, gradual trends in climate, subtle shifts in ecological interactions among potential hosts, and even individual behavioral decisions by people, all colluding to make up the difference between an interesting but rare new variant of a known disease and an existential worldwide crisis. Being able to predict the emergence of pandemic threats, therefore, requires a fully integrated, multidisciplinary approach, able to consider the complexity of these realms across scales of interaction to predict and, ideally, prevent. This workshop will include experts from otherwise disparate scholarly communities in biology, mathematics, engineering, computer science, ecology and social science to come together and discuss how to integrate the approaches taken by each community into a more effective, unified science of pandemic prediction. Discussions will leverage recently developed advances in disease ecology, computational biology and biophysics, information and network science, sensing, and statistics to analyze pertinent data, enabling inference of difficult-to-measure information and the integration of real-time observation, computation, and experimentation. The workshop aims at formulating a new science base on pandemic preparedness, identifying scientific gaps that need to be addressed, and discussing how to design solutions to fill those gaps in ways that anticipate multidisciplinary use. Participants will consider how to construct integrative and multidisciplinary frameworks to enable better insights into the fundamental processes of pandemic emergence and translate those insights into practical tools for preventing and/or mitigating pandemic threats. It is anticipated that the workshop will result into concrete recommendations for how the critical and diverse relevant fields can move forward together to increase global safety, guarding against future pandemics.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

尽管流行病自古以来就威胁着人类文明，但如何预测和预防流行病仍然是最紧迫的挑战之一，需要创新的见解和做法。大流行是通过偶然的“完美风暴”出现的：病原体的分子变化，气候的渐进趋势，潜在宿主之间生态相互作用的微妙变化，甚至是人们的个人行为决定，所有这些都在合谋，以弥补一种有趣但罕见的已知疾病的新变种和一场存在的全球危机之间的差异。因此，要想预测大流行威胁的出现，就需要采取一种全面综合的多学科方法，能够考虑这些领域在相互作用的各个层面上的复杂性，以进行预测，并在理想情况下进行预防。这次研讨会将包括来自生物学、数学、工程学、计算机科学、生态学和社会科学等不同学术团体的专家，他们将聚集在一起讨论如何将每个团体采取的方法整合到一个更有效、统一的流行病预测科学中。讨论将利用疾病生态学，计算生物学和生物物理学，信息和网络科学，传感和统计学的最新进展来分析相关数据，从而推断难以测量的信息，并整合实时观察，计算和实验。讲习班的目的是建立一个新的大流行防范科学基础，确定需要填补的科学空白，并讨论如何设计解决方案，以预期多学科使用的方式填补这些空白。与会者将考虑如何构建综合和多学科框架，以便更好地了解大流行病出现的基本过程，并将这些见解转化为预防和/或减轻大流行病威胁的实用工具。预计研讨会将产生具体的建议，如何关键和不同的相关领域可以共同前进，以提高全球安全，防范未来的流行病。这个奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并已被认为是值得通过使用基金会的智力价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估的支持。