SRS RN: Preparing for Just and Sustainable Climate Migration

SRS RN：为公正和可持续的气候移民做好准备

• 批准号: 2115259
• 负责人: Elisabeth Infield
• 金额: $ 15万
• 依托单位: University of Massachusetts Amherst
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2022
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2022-09-01 至 2024-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2115259&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: SRS; RN; Preparing; Just; Sustainable

Environmental change and disasters, such as repeated floods, wildfires, droughts, and extreme heat, are pushing U.S. residents to move from hazardous to safer locations. Early knowledge of likely domestic migration, before it is a crisis, can ensure the well-being of both movers and the receiving communities to which they go. This planning grant focuses on improving projections and planning for climate-related population movement, with a particular focus on receiving areas of inland New England. The planning process involves refining the scientific model, gathering data sources, conducting a study pilot, strengthening the research team, and enhancing public engagement. This planning grant identifies paths toward incorporating climate stresses and economic/technical conditions into regional migration modeling. The project combines data on environmental change, demographic change, and population movement into dynamic, multidirectional systems simulations. Investigators evaluate conventional data sources such as the Internal Revenue Service, the American Community Survey, and the Current Population Survey, alongside novel data sources, such as moving truck rentals and online real-estate searches in hazard-prone areas. Interregional migration flows are analyzed using empirical and simulation-based models. A scenario planning workshop assesses the utility and perceived validity of the project’s data and methods for guiding local planning and policy decisions. The workshop brings together Regional Planning Agency (RPA) partners, Tribal Nations, and groups representing minoritized communities. Together, the scientific research and workshop build understanding of climate migration modeling as applied to local and regional communities.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

环境变化和灾害，如反复发生的洪水、野火、干旱和极端高温，正在推动美国居民从危险地区搬到更安全的地方。在可能的国内移徙成为危机之前及早了解这种情况，可以确保移徙者和他们所去的接收社区的福祉。这项规划赠款的重点是改善与气候有关的人口流动的预测和规划，特别侧重于内陆新英格兰的接收地区。规划过程涉及完善科学模型、收集数据来源、进行试验研究、加强研究团队和加强公众参与。该规划补助金确定了将气候压力和经济/技术条件纳入区域移民建模的途径。该项目将环境变化、人口变化和人口流动的数据结合到动态、多方向的系统模拟中。调查人员评估传统的数据来源，如国税局，美国社区调查和当前人口调查，以及新的数据来源，如移动卡车租赁和灾害易发地区的在线房地产搜索。区域间移徙流动是使用经验模型和模拟模型进行分析的。情景规划讲习班评估项目数据和方法的效用和预期有效性，以指导地方规划和政策决定。该讲习班汇集了区域规划署的合作伙伴、部落民族和代表少数民族社区的团体。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。