SRS RN: Preparing for Just and Sustainable Climate Migration

环境变化和灾害，如反复发生的洪水、野火、干旱和极端高温，正迫使美国居民从危险地区迁往更安全的地方。及早了解可能的国内移徙，在其成为危机之前，可以确保移徙者和他们前往的接收社区的福祉。这项规划赠款的重点是改进与气候有关的人口流动的预测和规划，特别侧重于新英格兰内陆的接收地区。规划过程包括完善科学模型、收集数据来源、开展研究试点、加强研究团队以及加强公众参与。这项规划拨款确定了将气候压力和经济/技术条件纳入区域移民模型的途径。该项目将环境变化、人口变化和人口流动的数据结合到动态、多向的系统模拟中。调查人员评估了传统的数据来源，如美国国税局、美国社区调查和当前人口调查，以及新的数据来源，如搬家卡车租金和易发地区的在线房地产搜索。区域间移民流动分析使用经验和基于模拟的模型。情景规划研讨会评估项目数据和方法的效用和感知有效性，以指导当地规划和政策决策。研讨会汇集了区域规划局（RPA）合作伙伴、部落国家和代表少数族裔社区的团体。科学研究和研讨会共同建立了对适用于地方和区域社区的气候迁移模型的理解。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

Environmental change and disasters, such as repeated floods, wildfires, droughts, and extreme heat, are pushing U.S. residents to move from hazardous to safer locations. Early knowledge of likely domestic migration, before it is a crisis, can ensure the well-being of both movers and the receiving communities to which they go. This planning grant focuses on improving projections and planning for climate-related population movement, with a particular focus on receiving areas of inland New England. The planning process involves refining the scientific model, gathering data sources, conducting a study pilot, strengthening the research team, and enhancing public engagement. This planning grant identifies paths toward incorporating climate stresses and economic/technical conditions into regional migration modeling. The project combines data on environmental change, demographic change, and population movement into dynamic, multidirectional systems simulations. Investigators evaluate conventional data sources such as the Internal Revenue Service, the American Community Survey, and the Current Population Survey, alongside novel data sources, such as moving truck rentals and online real-estate searches in hazard-prone areas. Interregional migration flows are analyzed using empirical and simulation-based models. A scenario planning workshop assesses the utility and perceived validity of the project’s data and methods for guiding local planning and policy decisions. The workshop brings together Regional Planning Agency (RPA) partners, Tribal Nations, and groups representing minoritized communities. Together, the scientific research and workshop build understanding of climate migration modeling as applied to local and regional communities.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.