Collaborative Research: An analysis of 150 years of sea surface and subsurface observations to map whole-ocean temperature and detect circulation change

合作研究：分析 150 年的海面和地下观测结果，绘制全海洋温度图并检测环流变化

• 批准号: 2123295
• 负责人: Peter Huybers
• 金额: $ 33.65万
• 依托单位: Harvard University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2021
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2021-09-01 至 2024-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2123295&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; analysis; 150; years

In this project, surface and subsurface observations of ocean temperature will be combined with a numerical model of the ocean circulation to optimally estimate changes in ocean temperature and heat uptake over the past 150 years. Ocean heat uptake is a critical quantity for understanding the degree to which the Earth’s climate is out of energetic equilibrium and for purposes of constraining equilibrium warming in response to increases in greenhouse gases. This integrated analysis will allow testing for the presence of systematic errors in ocean temperature observations and to examine whether and how ocean circulation has varied over the last 150 years. Products of the research will include a quality-controlled dataset of ocean temperature observations and a corresponding time-evolving, three- dimensional mapping over the modern warming era.Sea surface and subsurface ocean temperature observations will be combined with an inverse ocean-circulation model to constrain temperature and ocean heat uptake over the last 150 years. Historical subsurface temperature observations will be used to evaluate random and systematic errors within and across data sets. This examination will leverage both a linear-mixed-effects methodology previously developed by the investigators and applied to identify offsets among sea-surface temperature observations, as well as a data-constrained circulation model also previously developed by the investigators and applied for purposes of inter-comparing interior and surface boundary properties. An existing circulation estimate, conditioned on modern tracers, will be used to test for changes in ocean circulation over the last 150 years. A three-dimensional mapping of ocean temperatures over the last 150 years that combines constraints from surface and interior ocean observations will be produced. The mapping will make use of the data-constrained circulation model and will be performed repeatedly in order to develop multiple ensembles that capture uncertainties associated with random and systematic observational errors, as well as uncertainties in circulation and initial conditions. Integration over this temperature mapping will provide estimates of ocean heat uptake and associated uncertainties.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

在这个项目中，对海洋温度的地面和次表层观测将与海洋环流的数值模式相结合，以最佳地估计过去150年来海洋温度和热吸收的变化。海洋吸热量是了解地球气候在多大程度上脱离能量平衡的关键数量，也是为了限制平衡变暖以应对温室气体增加的目的。这一综合分析将能够测试海洋温度观测中是否存在系统误差，并检查海洋环流在过去150年中是否发生变化以及如何发生变化。这项研究的成果将包括海洋温度观测的质量控制数据集，以及现代变暖时代相应的随时间演变的三维地图。海面和次表层海洋温度观测将与反向海洋环流模型相结合，以限制过去150年的温度和海洋热量吸收。将使用历史地下温度观测来评估数据集内和数据集之间的随机和系统误差。这项审查将利用调查人员先前开发并应用于确定海表面温度观测偏移量的线性混合效果方法，以及研究人员先前开发并应用于相互比较内部和表面边界性质的数据约束环流模型。现有的以现代示踪剂为条件的环流估计将用于测试过去150年来海洋环流的变化。将制作一张过去150年来海洋温度的三维地图，其中结合了海洋表面和内部观测的限制条件。映射将利用数据约束环流模型，并将重复进行，以形成多个集合，以捕捉与随机和系统观测误差有关的不确定性，以及环流和初始条件中的不确定性。综合这份温度图将提供对海洋热量吸收和相关不确定性的估计。这项裁决反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

项目成果

Global and Regional Discrepancies between Early-Twentieth-Century Coastal Air and Sea Surface Temperature Detected by a Coupled Energy-Balance Analysis

通过耦合能量平衡分析检测到二十世纪初沿海空气和海面温度之间的全球和区域差异

• DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-22-0569.1
• 发表时间: 2023
• 期刊: Journal of Climate
• 影响因子: 4.9
• 作者: Chan, Duo;Gebbie, Geoffrey;Huybers, Peter
• 通讯作者: Huybers, Peter