Novel econometric techniques for modelling and forecasting electricity prices and price volatility in Australia.

用于建模和预测澳大利亚电价和价格波动的新型计量经济学技术。

• 批准号: LX0882226
• 负责人: Prof Aubrey Hurn
• 金额: $ 2.27万
• 依托单位: Queensland University of Technology
• 依托单位国家: 澳大利亚
• 项目类别: Linkage - International
• 财政年份: 2008
• 资助国家: 澳大利亚
• 起止时间: 2008-01-01 至 2011-06-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://dataportal.arc.gov.au/RGS/Web/Grants/LX0882226
• 关键词: Novel; econometric; techniques; modelling; forecasting

Price volatility, particularly price spikes, are of special importance to electricity retailers who, because of retail price regulation, cannot pass them onto final customers and end up bearing the price risk. While state governments may enter into compensation deals with retailers, it is of great interest to both parties to understand why and when these price surges occur and, once they have occurred, how long they will last. A better understanding of the electricity price process will enable more sophisticated plans and strategies to be put in place to hedge against unfavourable, unexpected or extreme price events.

价格波动，特别是价格飙升，对电力零售商特别重要，因为零售价格监管，他们不能将价格波动转嫁给最终客户，最终承担价格风险。虽然州政府可能会与零售商达成赔偿协议，但双方都非常感兴趣的是，了解这些价格飙升的原因和时间，以及一旦发生，它们将持续多久。更好地了解电价过程将使我们能够制定更复杂的计划和战略，以对冲不利、意外或极端价格事件的影响。