Belmont Forum Collaborative Research: Climate-Induced Migration in Africa and Beyond: Big Data and Predictive Analytics

贝尔蒙特论坛合作研究：非洲及其他地区气候引起的移民：大数据和预测分析

• 批准号: 2310908
• 负责人: STEFANO MARIA IACUS
• 金额: $ 45万
• 依托单位: Harvard University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2023
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2023-05-15 至 2026-04-30
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2310908&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Belmont; Forum; Collaborative; Research; Climate

This award provides support to U.S. researchers participating in a project competitively selected by a 55-country initiative on global change research through the Belmont Forum. The Belmont Forum is a consortium of research funding organizations focused on support for transdisciplinary approaches to global environmental change challenges and opportunities. It aims to accelerate delivery of the international research most urgently needed to remove critical barriers to sustainability by aligning and mobilizing international resources. Each partner country provides funding for their researchers within a consortium to alleviate the need for funds to cross international borders. This approach facilitates effective leveraging of national resources to support excellent research on topics of global relevance best tackled through a multinational approach, recognizing that global challenges need global solutions. This award provides support for the U.S. researchers to cooperate in consortia that consist of partners from at least three of the participating countries. The teams will establish transdisciplinary projects to identify and understand how climate-related events, both slow and rapid onset, are linked to human migration and mobility.The project aims to develop a predictive model of climate-induced migration based in theory and informed by spatially explicit data to better understand the climate-migration nexus. Importantly, the project examines how climate migration intersects with other hardships from conflicts to poverty and epidemics. The project will use cell phone data to provide real-time data on migration within a given country, something that is often not captured by global datasets. High resolution mobility patterns will be examined by leveraging satellite, social media, survey, and statistical data. These analyses will inform a framework to estimate the likelihood of displacement within country (using Senegal as a case study) and map locations of “climate shocks.” These mapping exercises will be complemented by social media data and on-the-ground surveys, to understand the public opinion and discourse around climate migration. Building off the case study, the research team plans to build a predictive model using Big Data sources in concert with simulated future scenarios, to help inform public policy. The CLIMB project team is multinational and multi-institutional and includes members who bring expertise from ecology, earth sciences, data sciences, sociology, and economics, representing five countries (Sweden, Turkey, Senegal, Austria, and USA).This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

该奖项通过贝尔蒙特论坛，为参与由55个国家的全球变化研究倡议竞争性选择的项目的美国研究人员提供支持。贝尔蒙特论坛是一个由研究供资组织组成的联合会，其重点是支持对全球环境变化挑战和机遇采取跨学科办法。 它的目的是通过调整和调动国际资源，加快提供最迫切需要的国际研究，以消除可持续性的关键障碍。每个伙伴国家都在一个财团内为其研究人员提供资金，以减轻跨越国际边界的资金需求。这一办法有助于有效利用国家资源，支持对具有全球意义的专题进行出色的研究，最好通过多国办法加以处理，同时认识到全球挑战需要全球解决办法。该奖项为美国研究人员提供支持，使他们能够在由至少三个参与国的合作伙伴组成的联盟中进行合作。 这些小组将建立跨学科项目，以确定和了解与气候有关的事件，包括缓慢和快速发生的事件，如何与人类移徙和流动联系在一起，该项目旨在建立一个基于理论并以空间明确数据为依据的气候所致移徙预测模型，以更好地了解气候与移徙的关系。重要的是，该项目研究了气候移民如何与冲突、贫困和流行病等其他困难交织在一起。该项目将使用手机数据提供特定国家内的实时移民数据，这通常是全球数据集无法捕捉的。高分辨率的移动模式将通过利用卫星、社交媒体、调查和统计数据进行研究。这些分析将为一个框架提供信息，以估计国内流离失所的可能性（以塞内加尔为案例研究），并绘制“气候冲击”的位置图。这些测绘工作将得到社交媒体数据和实地调查的补充，以了解公众舆论和围绕气候移徙的讨论。在案例研究的基础上，研究团队计划使用大数据源建立一个预测模型，与模拟的未来场景相结合，以帮助制定公共政策。 CLIMB项目团队是跨国和多机构的，包括来自生态学，地球科学，数据科学，社会学和经济学的专业知识，代表五个国家（瑞典，土耳其，塞内加尔，奥地利和美国）的成员。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。