Belmont Forum Collaborative Research: Climate-Induced Migration in Africa and Beyond: Big Data and Predictive Analytics

该奖项为参与一个由55个国家发起的全球变化研究计划通过贝尔蒙特论坛竞争性选定的项目的美国研究人员提供支持。贝尔蒙特论坛是一个研究资助组织联盟，专注于支持以跨学科方法应对全球环境变化的挑战和机遇。它的目的是通过协调和调动国际资源，加速开展最迫切需要的国际研究，以消除对可持续性的关键障碍。每个伙伴国都在一个联合体内为其研究人员提供资金，以减轻跨越国际边界的资金需求。这种办法有助于有效地利用国家资源，支持对具有全球相关性的专题进行出色的研究，最好通过多国办法加以解决，同时认识到全球挑战需要全球解决办法。该奖项为美国研究人员在财团中进行合作提供支持，财团由至少三个参与国的合作伙伴组成。这些团队将建立跨学科项目，以确定和了解气候相关事件(包括缓慢和快速发生的事件)如何与人类迁徙和流动联系在一起。该项目旨在开发一个以理论为基础、以空间清晰的数据为信息的气候诱导迁徙预测模型，以更好地理解气候与迁徙的关系。重要的是，该项目研究了气候迁移如何与从冲突到贫困和流行病的其他困难交织在一起。该项目将使用手机数据来提供特定国家内移民的实时数据，而全球数据集往往无法捕捉到这些数据。我们将利用卫星、社交媒体、调查和统计数据来研究高分辨率的移动模式。这些分析将提供一个框架，以估计国内流离失所的可能性(以塞内加尔为例)，并绘制“气候冲击”的位置图。这些测绘工作将得到社交媒体数据和实地调查的补充，以了解围绕气候移民的公众舆论和言论。在案例研究的基础上，研究团队计划利用大数据来源与模拟的未来情景相结合，建立一个预测模型，以帮助为公共政策提供信息。攀登项目团队是多国和多机构的，成员来自生态、地球科学、数据科学、社会学和经济学，代表五个国家(瑞典、土耳其、塞内加尔、奥地利和美国)。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

This award provides support to U.S. researchers participating in a project competitively selected by a 55-country initiative on global change research through the Belmont Forum. The Belmont Forum is a consortium of research funding organizations focused on support for transdisciplinary approaches to global environmental change challenges and opportunities. It aims to accelerate delivery of the international research most urgently needed to remove critical barriers to sustainability by aligning and mobilizing international resources. Each partner country provides funding for their researchers within a consortium to alleviate the need for funds to cross international borders. This approach facilitates effective leveraging of national resources to support excellent research on topics of global relevance best tackled through a multinational approach, recognizing that global challenges need global solutions. This award provides support for the U.S. researchers to cooperate in consortia that consist of partners from at least three of the participating countries. The teams will establish transdisciplinary projects to identify and understand how climate-related events, both slow and rapid onset, are linked to human migration and mobility.The project aims to develop a predictive model of climate-induced migration based in theory and informed by spatially explicit data to better understand the climate-migration nexus. Importantly, the project examines how climate migration intersects with other hardships from conflicts to poverty and epidemics. The project will use cell phone data to provide real-time data on migration within a given country, something that is often not captured by global datasets. High resolution mobility patterns will be examined by leveraging satellite, social media, survey, and statistical data. These analyses will inform a framework to estimate the likelihood of displacement within country (using Senegal as a case study) and map locations of “climate shocks.” These mapping exercises will be complemented by social media data and on-the-ground surveys, to understand the public opinion and discourse around climate migration. Building off the case study, the research team plans to build a predictive model using Big Data sources in concert with simulated future scenarios, to help inform public policy. The CLIMB project team is multinational and multi-institutional and includes members who bring expertise from ecology, earth sciences, data sciences, sociology, and economics, representing five countries (Sweden, Turkey, Senegal, Austria, and USA).This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.