Collaborative Research: Predicting Micro to Macro-scale Hot-spot and Hot-moment dynamics in Arctic Tundra Ecosystems

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Rapid climate warming in the Arctic is thawing frozen soils, also known as permafrost, which is not only reshaping surface topography but also increasing the release of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. Due to the speed in which Arctic landscapes are changing, and the massive carbon pools locked in permafrost, improving knowledge of the key interactions between plants and micro-organisms and their impacts on greenhouse gas release is essential for predicting how thawing Arctic soils will contribute to global climate change.The overarching objective of this project is to determine the micro-scale mechanisms driving hot-spot and hot-moment carbon dynamics, for improving predictions of macro-scale carbon balance. We hypothesize that the altered spatiotemporal distribution of degrading nutrient-rich permafrost has and will fundamentally alter the structure and function of northern tundra ecosystems, from microbes to landscapes. This multi-scale interdisciplinary project will transform our knowledge of fundamental plant-soil-microbial interactions that govern past and projected carbon cycle dynamics in permafrost ecosystems, while advancing knowledge of the key biogeochemical consequences of permafrost thaw over space (i.e., plot to landscape) and time (i.e., seasonal to decadal). The spatiotemporal mechanisms of hot-spots and hot-moment carbon dynamics will be characterized using a combination of low and high-precision ground and airborne flux observations to determine the location and assess the magnitude of carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) hot-spots. Ground and remote sensing observations will determine the controls on the observed spatial distribution of hot-spots and fluxes, space-for-time analyses of plants, microbes, and landforms, coupled with the timing of permafrost degradation will infer the existence of hot-moments, while incubation experiments will illuminate the mechanisms driving hot-moments across sites across the Arctic Coastal Plain of northern Alaska. The proposed research will therefore provide the foundation for next-generation mechanistic and process-based models to represent novel disturbance regimes in the new Arctic. These research efforts will be complimented by a growing collaborative network of Alaskan native high-school student involvement in Arctic disturbance ecology. Students will use drones to measure their environment and share results across campuses and with the broader scientific community.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.