Collaborative Research: RII Track-2 FEC: Where We Live: Local and Place Based Adaptation to Climate Change in Underserved Rural Communities

适应包括从个人到机构范围内发生的一系列行为和活动。这种适应的结果是，尽管生物物理环境发生了变化，但仍能保持健康、有效和繁荣。适应也是以对变化的准确感知为前提的，这是人类认知中的一组能力。人们在风险和严重气候事件(如洪水和野火)的背景下对感知进行了广泛的研究，但数据表明，感知风险并不会导致成功的适应，而适应对从人类健康到国家安全的一切都是至关重要的。目前的危险、脆弱性和风险测绘方法是无效的；它们不能加速适应，数据表明，它们甚至可能导致适应不良行为。农村社区占美国土地面积的近84%，居住着14%的人口。这些地区是食物、淡水、栖息地和能源的重要来源，并支持固碳、教育、娱乐和旅游业，但实际上被排除在气候对话之外。此外，它们是世界其他地区定居点的典范。尽管可以促进适应气候变化的技术取得了快速进步，但广泛的行动仍然遥不可及。人们需要了解了解和体验快速变化的地球系统的影响与成功应对这些影响的行为之间的差距，这是前所未有的。当感知与现实世界的动态显著不同时，它指的是巨大的差距(或差异)，这可能与不适应行为有关。该项目假设，这一差距的大小是决定适应能力的关键指标，即采取行动将气候变化和适应的负面影响降至最低的潜力。该项目的研究团队将使用参与性社会环境系统地图，让农村社区的居民参与进来，以及先进的计算建模，以在不同的变化情景和应对措施下预测未来。该项目将导致对观念、文化和适应之间的机制的准确理解，这将使我们能够通过增加知识的多样性来进行更好的规划，并导致在对我们国家的可持续性、安全和繁荣至关重要的领域和地区更成功地实施。RII Track-2：我们居住的地方(W2L)在服务不足的农村社区适应气候变化项目建立了国家研究竞争力和能力，以满足在服务不足的农村社区积极应对气候变化的关键国家需求。W2L项目促进了爱达荷州、内华达州和南卡罗来纳州EPSCoR司法管辖区之间的研究、教育、劳动力发展和伙伴关系。W2L利用并加强了社区参与、计算建模、工程、物理科学和社会科学之间的联系。W2L的目标是建立实现适应映射所需的能力--利用基于主体的模型来确定小型适应行动如何产生社区规模的复原力的能力，这是对应对气候挑战的一种新贡献。该项目的范围涉及爱达荷州、内华达州和南卡罗来纳州遭遇干旱、高温和野火的社区和景观，这些地区越来越受到当地和国家的关注。该项目通过与服务不足的农村社区合作，推进新的科学和培训，以增进对观念、价值观和知识如何促进或阻碍适应慢性(缓慢)和急性(快速)气候变化的理解。该项目使用综合方法，将气候科学、社会科学、计算建模和利益相关者参与结合在一起。方法包括在每个司法管辖区建立社区数据监督小组；以及使用称为象限启用德尔菲法的结构化研讨会，以支持社区成员和研究人员共同开发知识。量化气候变化感知和气候变化仪表化措施之间的差异将使用历史气候数据的数据挖掘和结构化讲习班的分类数据分析。确定与社区的适应途径将涉及一套由气候预测支持的、针对每一类气候引起的变化反复制定的情景，社区通过变化活动对话来审视这些情景。变化对话被用来支持干旱、高温和野火的适应地图。W2L项目强调社区参与和共同生产知识，并实施多项倡议，以增加服务不足的农村社区成员对研究和STEM的参与。W2L将通过与社区成员共同创建的高背景、社区参与的跨学科科学来支持劳动力发展、职业早期晋升和学生培训。W2L的潜在贡献是通过与社区团体的合作方法建立融合-科学；量化和分析气候引起的变化的感知和/或测量的变化之间的趋同和/或分歧；以及在服务不足的农村社区建立适应能力和适应选择的途径。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

Adaptation consists of a set of behaviors and activities that occur from individual to institutional scales. Such adaptation results in the ability to remain healthy, effective and prosperous, despite changes that occur in the biophysical environment. Adaptation is also predicated on accurate perception of change, a set of abilities embedded in human cognition. Perception has been extensively studied in the context of risk and acute climate events such as flooding and wildfire, but data show that perceiving risk does not lead to successful adaptation which is critical for everything from human health to national security. Current approaches of hazard, vulnerability and risk mapping are ineffective; they do not accelerate adaptation and data show that they may even drive maladaptive behaviors. Rural communities constitute nearly 84% of the United States (US) land area and are home to 14% of the population. These areas serve as critical sources of food, freshwater, habitat, and energy as well as supporting carbon sequestration, education, recreation, and tourism but have been effectively left out of climate dialogues. Moreover, they are models for settlements in other parts of the world. Despite the rapid progress of technologies that can facilitate adaptation to climate change, widespread actions remain elusive. The need to understand the gap between knowing and experiencing the effects of a rapidly changing earth system and the behaviors that successfully respond to them has never been greater. When perception varies significantly from real world dynamics, it refers to a large gap (or difference), which may be associated with maladaptive behavior. The project hypothesize that the size of this gap is a key measure that determines both adaptive capacity, i.e., the potential to take actions that minimize the negative effects of climate change and adaptation. This project's research team will use participatory socio-environmental systems mapping, engaging the residents of rural communities as well as advanced computational modeling to project futures under different scenarios of change and responses to it. This project will lead to precise understanding of the mechanisms between perceptions, cultures and adaptation which will enable both better planning by increasing the diversity of knowledge as well as lead to more successful implementation in areas and regions that are central to our Nation’s sustainability, security and thrivability. The RII Track-2: Where We Live (W2L) Local and Place Based Adaptation to Climate Change in Underserved Rural Communities project builds national research competitiveness and capacity to addressing the critical national need of proactively addressing climate change in underserved rural communities. The W2L project advances research, education, workforce development, and partnerships among the Idaho, Nevada, and South Carolina EPSCoR jurisdictions. W2L leverages and enhances linkages in community engagement, computational modeling, engineering, physical sciences, and social sciences. The goal of W2L is to build the needed capacity to achieve adaptation mapping—the ability to leverage agent-based models to determine how small adaptation actions produce community-scale resilience, a novel contribution to tackling the climate challenge. The scope of the project involves communities and landscapes experiencing drought, heat, and wildfires in Idaho, Nevada, and South Carolina, areas of growing local and national concern. The project advances novel science and training by working collaboratively with underserved rural communities to advance understanding of how perceptions, values, and knowledge promote or impede adaptation to chronic (slow) and acute (fast) climate-induced changes. The project uses integrative approaches that bring together climate science, social science, computational modeling, and stakeholder engagement. Methods include development of community data oversight groups in each jurisdiction; and use of a structured workshop called the quadrant-enabled Delphi method to support co-development of knowledge by community members and researchers. Quantification of the delta between perceptions of change and instrumented measures of climate change will use data mining of historical climate data and categorical data analysis from the structured workshops. The identification of adaptation pathways with communities will involve a set of iteratively developed scenarios for each type of climate-induced change supported by climate projections that are looked at by communities though a dialogues of change activity. Dialogues of change are used to support adaptation mapping for drought, heat, and wildfire. The W2L project emphasizes community engagement and the co-production of knowledge and implements multiple initiatives to increase the participation of members of underserved rural communities in research and in STEM. W2L will support workforce development, early-career advancement, and student training through high-context, community-engaged interdisciplinary science, co-created with community members. The potential contributions of W2L are to build convergence-science through collaborative approaches with community groups; to quantify and analyze the convergence and/or divergence between perceptions of climate-induced changes and instrument measured changes in those changes; and to build pathways for adaptive capacity and adaptation options in rural underserved communities.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.