Collaborative Research: RII Track-2 FEC: Where We Live: Local and Place Based Adaptation to Climate Change in Underserved Rural Communities

适应包括从个人到机构的一系列行为和活动。这种适应使其能够在生物物理环境发生变化的情况下保持健康、有效和繁荣。适应也基于对变化的准确感知，这是人类认知中固有的一套能力。在洪水和野火等风险和急性气候事件的背景下，人们对感知进行了广泛的研究，但数据表明，感知风险并不能导致成功的适应，而适应对从人类健康到国家安全的一切都至关重要。目前的危害、脆弱性和风险绘图方法是无效的；它们不会加速适应，数据显示它们甚至可能导致不适应行为。农村社区占美国土地面积的近84%，居住着14%的人口。这些地区是食物、淡水、栖息地和能源的重要来源，并支持碳封存、教育、娱乐和旅游，但实际上却被排除在气候对话之外。此外，它们是世界其他地区住区的典范。尽管能够促进适应气候变化的技术进步迅速，但广泛的行动仍然难以实现。认识和体验快速变化的地球系统的影响与成功应对这些影响的行为之间的差距是前所未有的。当感知与现实世界的动态有显著差异时，它指的是一个很大的差距（或差异），这可能与适应不良行为有关。该项目假设，这一差距的大小是决定适应能力（即采取行动以尽量减少气候变化负面影响的潜力）和适应能力的关键指标。该项目的研究团队将使用参与式社会环境系统绘图，让农村社区居民参与其中，并使用先进的计算模型来预测不同变化情景下的未来及其应对措施。该项目将有助于准确理解认知、文化和适应之间的机制，从而通过增加知识的多样性来实现更好的规划，并在对我国的可持续性、安全和繁荣发展至关重要的领域和地区实现更成功的实施。第二轨道：我们生活在哪里（W2L）服务欠缺的农村社区基于地方和地方的气候变化适应项目建立了国家研究竞争力和能力，以满足国家在服务欠缺的农村社区积极应对气候变化的关键需求。W2L项目推进了爱达荷州、内华达州和南卡罗来纳州EPSCoR管辖区之间的研究、教育、劳动力发展和合作关系。W2L利用并增强了社区参与、计算建模、工程、物理科学和社会科学之间的联系。W2L的目标是建立实现适应映射所需的能力——利用基于主体的模型来确定小的适应行动如何产生社区规模的恢复力，这是应对气候挑战的一项新贡献。该项目的范围涉及爱达荷州、内华达州和南卡罗来纳州遭受干旱、高温和野火的社区和景观，这些地区日益受到当地和全国的关注。该项目通过与服务不足的农村社区合作，推进新科学和培训，以加深对观念、价值观和知识如何促进或阻碍对慢性（慢）和急性（快）气候变化的适应的理解。该项目采用综合方法，将气候科学、社会科学、计算建模和利益相关者参与结合起来。方法包括在每个辖区建立社区数据监督小组；并使用称为象限Delphi方法的结构化研讨会来支持社区成员和研究人员共同开发知识。对变化感知和气候变化仪器测量之间的差的量化将使用历史气候数据的数据挖掘和来自结构化讲习班的分类数据分析。与社区一起确定适应途径将涉及一套由气候预测支持的针对每种类型的气候引起的变化的迭代开发的情景，社区通过变化活动对话来研究这些情景。变化对话用于支持对干旱、高温和野火的适应绘图。W2L项目强调社区参与和知识的共同生产，并实施了多项举措，以增加服务不足的农村社区成员对研究和STEM的参与。W2L将通过与社区成员共同创建的高背景、社区参与的跨学科科学，支持劳动力发展、早期职业发展和学生培训。W2L的潜在贡献是通过与社区团体的协作方法建立融合科学；量化和分析对气候引起的变化的认识与在这些变化中通过仪器测量到的变化之间的趋同和/或差异；并为服务不足的农村社区建立适应能力和适应方案的途径。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

Adaptation consists of a set of behaviors and activities that occur from individual to institutional scales. Such adaptation results in the ability to remain healthy, effective and prosperous, despite changes that occur in the biophysical environment. Adaptation is also predicated on accurate perception of change, a set of abilities embedded in human cognition. Perception has been extensively studied in the context of risk and acute climate events such as flooding and wildfire, but data show that perceiving risk does not lead to successful adaptation which is critical for everything from human health to national security. Current approaches of hazard, vulnerability and risk mapping are ineffective; they do not accelerate adaptation and data show that they may even drive maladaptive behaviors. Rural communities constitute nearly 84% of the United States (US) land area and are home to 14% of the population. These areas serve as critical sources of food, freshwater, habitat, and energy as well as supporting carbon sequestration, education, recreation, and tourism but have been effectively left out of climate dialogues. Moreover, they are models for settlements in other parts of the world. Despite the rapid progress of technologies that can facilitate adaptation to climate change, widespread actions remain elusive. The need to understand the gap between knowing and experiencing the effects of a rapidly changing earth system and the behaviors that successfully respond to them has never been greater. When perception varies significantly from real world dynamics, it refers to a large gap (or difference), which may be associated with maladaptive behavior. The project hypothesize that the size of this gap is a key measure that determines both adaptive capacity, i.e., the potential to take actions that minimize the negative effects of climate change and adaptation. This project's research team will use participatory socio-environmental systems mapping, engaging the residents of rural communities as well as advanced computational modeling to project futures under different scenarios of change and responses to it. This project will lead to precise understanding of the mechanisms between perceptions, cultures and adaptation which will enable both better planning by increasing the diversity of knowledge as well as lead to more successful implementation in areas and regions that are central to our Nation’s sustainability, security and thrivability. The RII Track-2: Where We Live (W2L) Local and Place Based Adaptation to Climate Change in Underserved Rural Communities project builds national research competitiveness and capacity to addressing the critical national need of proactively addressing climate change in underserved rural communities. The W2L project advances research, education, workforce development, and partnerships among the Idaho, Nevada, and South Carolina EPSCoR jurisdictions. W2L leverages and enhances linkages in community engagement, computational modeling, engineering, physical sciences, and social sciences. The goal of W2L is to build the needed capacity to achieve adaptation mapping—the ability to leverage agent-based models to determine how small adaptation actions produce community-scale resilience, a novel contribution to tackling the climate challenge. The scope of the project involves communities and landscapes experiencing drought, heat, and wildfires in Idaho, Nevada, and South Carolina, areas of growing local and national concern. The project advances novel science and training by working collaboratively with underserved rural communities to advance understanding of how perceptions, values, and knowledge promote or impede adaptation to chronic (slow) and acute (fast) climate-induced changes. The project uses integrative approaches that bring together climate science, social science, computational modeling, and stakeholder engagement. Methods include development of community data oversight groups in each jurisdiction; and use of a structured workshop called the quadrant-enabled Delphi method to support co-development of knowledge by community members and researchers. Quantification of the delta between perceptions of change and instrumented measures of climate change will use data mining of historical climate data and categorical data analysis from the structured workshops. The identification of adaptation pathways with communities will involve a set of iteratively developed scenarios for each type of climate-induced change supported by climate projections that are looked at by communities though a dialogues of change activity. Dialogues of change are used to support adaptation mapping for drought, heat, and wildfire. The W2L project emphasizes community engagement and the co-production of knowledge and implements multiple initiatives to increase the participation of members of underserved rural communities in research and in STEM. W2L will support workforce development, early-career advancement, and student training through high-context, community-engaged interdisciplinary science, co-created with community members. The potential contributions of W2L are to build convergence-science through collaborative approaches with community groups; to quantify and analyze the convergence and/or divergence between perceptions of climate-induced changes and instrument measured changes in those changes; and to build pathways for adaptive capacity and adaptation options in rural underserved communities.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.