SBE-UKRI: Cumulative Civilian Harm

这个项目将阐明并设法纠正管理武装冲突的国际人道主义法中的一个关键盲点。国际人道法关注的是每次袭击中平民伤害是否“过度”，但未能考虑到冲突过程中累积的平民伤害，包括多次袭击中的平民伤害，以及长期暴露于武装冲突的总体和紧急影响。这一项目预期的一个重要的知识价值是发展出一种新的“战略相称性”标准，除目前的国际人道主义法要求外，还应适用该标准，根据该标准，交战各方必须在累积的平民伤害与其明确界定的战略目标之间取得平衡。此外，这项研究将阐明决策者和受冲突影响的民众目前如何看待累积的平民伤害。通过这项研究，该项目将加深对使用武力和受其影响的人如何根据国际人道主义法看待平民保护的理解。理想情况下，这项研究将最终形成一个以平民为中心、指导行动的法律和政策框架，以管理累积的平民伤害。战争中对平民的过度伤害往往是不遵守战争法的结果，但也可能源于国际法未能考虑到累积的平民伤害。法律专家认为，平民伤亡总数并不能决定军事行动是否合法，战争的许多有害影响超出了法律的管辖范围。这一项目的动力来自一种信念，即国际法不应在这些问题上保持沉默。它回应了来自不同国家的高级政治和军事从业人员的要求，他们伸出手来强调迫切需要关于累积平民伤害的行动指导规则。研究将集中在四个关键工作成果上：(1)案头研究案例、条约法和军事手册，同时对现有奖学金进行系统审查；(2)与前任和现任高级军事和政治决策者进行访谈，以确定是否以及如何在决策中考虑累积平民伤害；(3)在冲突地区通过调查实验进行实地研究，以确定对累积平民伤害的态度；(4)制定法律和政策框架，使政治决策者能够考虑到累积的平民伤害。该提案是在SBE-UKRI领导机构机会下授予的。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

This project will illuminate and seek to rectify a critical blindspot in international humanitarian law governing armed conflict. International humanitarian law focuses on whether civilian harms are “excessive” in each individual attack, but fails to account for cumulative civilian harm over the course of a conflict both with respect to civilian harm across many attacks, as well as the aggregate and emergent effects of prolonged exposure to armed conflict. One of the key anticipated intellectual merits of this project is the development of a new standard of “strategic proportionality” that should apply in addition to current international humanitarian law requirements, according to which belligerents must balance cumulative civilian harm against their clearly defined strategic objectives. In addition, the research will illuminate how decision-makers and conflict-affected populations currently think about cumulative civilian harm. Through this research, the project will deepen understanding of how those who use force and are affected by it view civilian protection under international humanitarian law. The research ideally will culminate in the articulation of a civilian-centered, action-guiding legal and policy framework to govern cumulative civilian harm. Excessive civilian harm in war is often a result of non-compliance with the laws of war, yet it can also stem from international law’s failure to account for cumulative civilian harm. Legal experts have argued that total civilian casualty numbers do not determine whether military operations are lawful and that many harmful effects of war are beyond the reach of law. This project is animated by a belief that international law should not be silent on these issues. It responds to requests from senior political and military practitioners from different countries who have reached out to stress the urgent need for action-guiding rules on cumulative civilian harm. The research will focus on four key work products: (1) desk research into case, treaty law, and military manuals, along with a systematic review of existing scholarship; (2) interviews with former and current senior military and political decision-makers to determine if and how cumulative civilian harm is considered in decision-making; (3) field research via survey experiments in conflict zones to determine attitudes towards cumulative civilian harm; and (4) development of a legal and policy framework to enable political decision-makers to account for cumulative civilian harm.This proposal is awarded under the SBE-UKRI Lead Agency Opportunity.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.