Collaborative Research: RAPID: Rapid computational modeling of wildfires and management with emphasis on human activity

对野火蔓延的准确短期预测对于向人们提供信息、最大限度地减少生命损失以及通过有效的灭火活动减轻野火的损失和成本至关重要。在拉海纳大火造成破坏之后，必须改进这些进程。在细节被遗忘之前，确定影响野火蔓延的所有因素并确定如何将它们纳入快速预测过程至关重要。该项目将培养博士。学生在计算科学和建模。该项目将涉及毛伊岛“Aina数据管理员”方案的高中和社区大学学生。该项目将开发野火模型，这些模型有可能在未来的野火中拯救人类生命和基础设施，使用水平集方法和Hamilton-Jacobi方程来模拟在住宅区野火活动期间和之后与人类活动相结合的野火蔓延。虽然水平集方法对于耦合到数据同化方法进行实时分析的野火建模相对较为人所知，但需要了解它们与人类活动的相互作用，特别是因为它涉及野火事件后立即疏散和保护财产。这项研究的一个成果将是一个新的模型，为野火响应提供复杂的算法和数学基础的理解，这有助于在拉海纳火灾风暴等几乎实时的灾害情况下进行资源分配。该项目将展示如何立即部署该模型，以避免导致悲剧的瓶颈，以及在火灾管理技术中实施范式转变解决方案所需的技术进步。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

Accurate short-term predictions of wildfire spread are essential to inform people, minimize the loss of lives and mitigate damage and cost of wildfire through effective suppression activities. It is critical to improve on these processes in the aftermath of the devastation of the Lahaina Fires. Before details are forgotten, it is critical to identify all the factors influencing wildfire spreads and to determine how to incorporate them into the rapid prediction process. This project will train Ph.D. students in computational science and modeling. This project will involve high school and community college students from the `Aina Data Stewards program on Maui. This project will develop wildfire models that have the potential to save human lives and infrastructure in future wildfires using level-set methods and Hamilton-Jacobi equations to model wildfire spread coupled to human activity during and after wildfire activity in residential zones. While level-set methods are relatively well known for wildfire modeling with coupling to data assimilation methods for real-time analysis, there is need to understand their interaction with human activity especially as it relates to evacuation and protection of property immediately after a wildfire event. A product of this research will be a new model to provide an understanding of the complex algorithmic and mathematical basis for wildfire response that can aid in resource allocation in a virtually real-time disaster situation such as the Lahaina firestorm. This project will show how to immediately deploy this model to avert the bottlenecks leading to tragedy and the required technological advances necessary to implement paradigm-shifting solutions in fire management techniques.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.