Understanding spatial interactions and structural change in the dairy production chain with a dynamic regional Agent Based Model covering dairy farms and dairy processing

通过基于动态区域代理的模型（涵盖奶牛场和乳制品加工）了解乳制品生产链中的空间相互作用和结构变化

• 批准号: 267637501
• 负责人: Privatdozent Dr. Wolfgang Britz
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: Institut für Lebensmittel- und Ressourcenökonomik (ILR)
• 依托单位国家: 德国
• 项目类别: Research Grants
• 财政年份: 2014
• 资助国家: 德国
• 起止时间: 2013-12-31 至 2018-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gepris.dfg.de/gepris/projekt/267637501?language=en
• 关键词: Understanding; spatial; interactions; structural; change

The two central hypotheses to be investigated in this research project is that (1) farm structural change in the German dairy sector is the outcome of the interaction between processes at the farm and processing level and that (2) an improved understanding of these processes can be reached by the application of Agent Based Modelling (ABM), which allows to explicitly depict spatial interactions. The objective is to understand the complex dynamic interaction between structural change at farm level and raw milk processing stage, and the resulting consequences for land use, agricultural supply, the economy and the environment, by conducting simulations for different regions with a spatially explicit ABM. That ABM will explicitly cover the farm and processing level of raw milk, which goes beyond the current state-of-the-art. In order to integrate the behavior of a complex dynamic Mathematical Programming model for different types of farms in the ABM, a meta-modeling approach will be applied.The specific objectives of this project and the related tasks are the following: (1) to develop a methodology to derive appropriate meta-models, reflecting different planning horizons, from a complex farm model and apply it to the parameterization of farm agents in the ABM, (2) to develop a behavioral model for dairies including investment decisions that describes spatial competition in raw milk markets, (3) to develop other key modules in the ABM such as a farm exit, farmland rental or dairy processing capacity adjustment module, (4) to integrate the results from objectives 1 - 3 into a dynamic ABM and (5) to improve understanding, based on systematic scenario applications of the ABM, how different structural starting conditions and different behavioral assumption impact structural change at farm and processing level.Given the integration of the farm and processing level in one ABM, this offers unique and innovative insights into determinants and interaction effects of structural change. The dairy sector is well suited for this analysis as there is this nearly perfect linkage between production and processing as only very little milk is sold directly at farm level. The expected outcomes are of relevance for the dairy farm sector and the dairy production chain as dairy production is an economically important part of the agricultural and food business. The medium- to long-term international competitiveness of the German dairy companies depends on the functioning and cost-efficient input sourcing. For the farm sectors, the regional structural change in the dairy sector has important implicit repercussions for regional land markets and landscapes.

在本研究项目中要研究的两个中心假设是：（1）德国乳制品行业的农场结构变化是农场和加工水平过程之间相互作用的结果;（2）通过应用基于代理的建模（ABM）可以更好地理解这些过程，它可以明确地描述空间相互作用。我们的目标是了解复杂的动态之间的相互作用，在农场一级和原料奶加工阶段的结构变化，以及由此产生的后果，土地利用，农业供应，经济和环境，进行模拟不同地区的空间明确的ABM。该ABM将明确涵盖原料奶的农场和加工水平，这超出了目前的最先进水平。为了整合ABM中不同类型农场的复杂动态数学规划模型的行为，将应用元建模方法。该项目的具体目标和相关任务如下：（1）制定一种方法，从复杂的农场模型中推导出反映不同规划视野的适当元模型，并将其应用于反弹道导弹管理中农场代理人的参数化，（2）建立一个包括投资决策在内的奶牛场行为模型，描述原料奶市场的空间竞争，（3）开发反弹道导弹管理中的其他关键模块，如农场退出、农地租赁或乳制品加工能力调整模块，（4）将目标1 - 3的结果纳入动态反弹道导弹管理，（5）在反弹道导弹管理系统情景应用的基础上，提高认识，不同的结构起始条件和不同的行为假设如何影响农场和加工水平的结构变化。鉴于农场和加工水平在一个ABM中的整合，这为结构变化的决定因素和相互作用效应提供了独特和创新的见解。乳制品行业非常适合这项分析，因为生产和加工之间几乎完美的联系，因为只有很少的牛奶直接在农场一级销售。预期结果与奶牛场部门和乳制品生产链相关，因为乳制品生产是农业和食品业务的经济重要组成部分。德国乳制品公司的中长期国际竞争力取决于有效和具有成本效益的投入来源。对于农业部门，乳制品部门的区域结构变化对区域土地市场和景观有重要的隐含影响。