Will tree seedling fitness and survival decline in the face of climate change? A novel quantitative approach with implications on forest regeneration

面对气候变化，树苗的适应性和生存率是否会下降？

• 批准号: 21K05689
• 负责人: Lei Thomas・T
• 金额: $ 2.66万
• 依托单位: Ryukoku University
• 依托单位国家: 日本
• 项目类别: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• 财政年份: 2021
• 资助国家: 日本
• 起止时间: 2021-04-01 至 2024-03-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/en/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-21K05689/
• 关键词: Leaf functional parity; Forest ecology; Forest regeneration; Climate change; Leaf carbon budget; Seedling ecology; Global warming

Last year, the first year of the three-year project, we established field and laboratory experiments and began collecting phenological and plant performance data. In 2022, the second year of the project, we focused on data gathering both in the field and in the growth chambers. Important elements of this study, i.e. 1) detailed environmental data (light level and temperature) across the growing season, 2) leaf phenology of target species from leaf emergence to leaf senescence and, 3) leaf performance (photosynthetic response to light and temperature variations) and leaf cost (LMA determination) of target plants were monitored during the year. These data will form the basis of the leaf functional parity (LFP) calculations that will begin in the 3rd year of this study. We have also begun a survey of forest dynamic modeling approaches in the literature during 2022 and we have identified a number of potentially useful models and will follow up with trial testing these models for their suitability in incorporating LFP input. The forest dynamic models are intended to process our LFP estimates on plant performance (seasonal) and generate probabilities of survivorship in current understory environment and, most importantly, in a future environment affected by climate change.

去年，也就是三年计划的第一年，我们建立了田间和实验室实验，并开始收集物候和植物表现数据。2022年，即项目的第二年，我们专注于在田间和生长室收集数据。本研究的重要元素，即1）整个生长季节的详细环境数据（光照水平和温度），2）目标物种从叶片出现到叶片衰老的叶片物候，以及3）目标植物的叶片性能（光合作用对光照和温度变化的反应）和叶片成本（LMA测定）在一年中进行了监测。这些数据将构成叶功能奇偶性（LFP）计算的基础，该计算将在本研究的第3年开始。我们亦已于2022年开始调查文献中的森林动态建模方法，并已识别多个潜在有用的模型，并将跟进试验测试这些模型是否适合纳入LFP输入。森林动态模型旨在处理我们对植物性能（季节性）的LFP估计，并在当前林下环境中生成生存概率，最重要的是，在未来受气候变化影响的环境中。

项目成果

気候変動下で樹木の苗木の適応度と生存率は低下するのか？新しい定量的アプローチ

气候变化会导致树苗的适应性和存活率下降吗？

• 发表时间: 2022
• 作者: Yada Taki;Inoue Akio;Lei Thomas Ting
• 通讯作者: Lei Thomas Ting