Will tree seedling fitness and survival decline in the face of climate change? A novel quantitative approach with implications on forest regeneration

点击翻译按钮获取中文摘要

Last year, the first year of the three-year project, we established field and laboratory experiments and began collecting phenological and plant performance data. In 2022, the second year of the project, we focused on data gathering both in the field and in the growth chambers. Important elements of this study, i.e. 1) detailed environmental data (light level and temperature) across the growing season, 2) leaf phenology of target species from leaf emergence to leaf senescence and, 3) leaf performance (photosynthetic response to light and temperature variations) and leaf cost (LMA determination) of target plants were monitored during the year. These data will form the basis of the leaf functional parity (LFP) calculations that will begin in the 3rd year of this study. We have also begun a survey of forest dynamic modeling approaches in the literature during 2022 and we have identified a number of potentially useful models and will follow up with trial testing these models for their suitability in incorporating LFP input. The forest dynamic models are intended to process our LFP estimates on plant performance (seasonal) and generate probabilities of survivorship in current understory environment and, most importantly, in a future environment affected by climate change.