Groundwater salinisation following sea level rise as a societal challenge of climate adapta-tion - The case of North-Western Germany

海平面上升后地下水盐碱化是气候适应的社会挑战——德国西北部的案例

• 批准号: 313915708
• 负责人: Professorin Dr. Gudrun Massmann
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: Institut für Biologie und Umweltwissenschaften (IBU)
• 依托单位国家: 德国
• 项目类别: Priority Programmes
• 财政年份: 2016
• 资助国家: 德国
• 起止时间: 2015-12-31 至 2020-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gepris.dfg.de/gepris/projekt/313915708?language=en
• 关键词: Groundwater; salinisation; following; sea; level

Groundwater salinisation is one of the major problems associated with sea level rise, yet it is a prob-lem which has been overseen for a long time by society and decision makers, as it is a phenomenon that is progressing comparatively slow and its impacts only unfold with a strong delay due to the sluggish nature of sub-surface flow. Hence, it is a problem that may be classified as a creeping catastrophy posing challenges to a better understanding of the problem dimensions as well as for the development of societal responses. It is crucial to understand the vulnerability of groundwater systems to rising sea levels following climate change and to understand the primary factors that determine the magnitude of system response to develop effective management and adaptation strategies in coastal zones. The project will aim at identifying the response of the coastal aquifers along the entire German Bight to sea level rise in the North Sea based on predictions from the SPP SeaLevel. For this purpose, large scale regional numerical variable density groundwater flow and transport modelling will be applied. Moreover, socio-economic consequences of the predicted groundwater salinisation will be investigated in order to assess abatement options. A particular focus will lie on perceptions, knowledge and learning processes of relevant societal actors as well as costs of adaptation options. The objectives of the proposed research are related to the general objectives of the SPP to determine the natural and social coastal systems responses to future sea level change, and to assess strategies to adapt to sea level change under given technical, economic, cultural, social and political constraints.

地下水盐碱化是与海平面上升相关的主要问题之一，但这个问题长期以来一直受到社会和决策者的关注，因为这种现象进展相对缓慢，而且由于地下水流的缓慢性质，其影响的显现也有很大的延迟。因此，这个问题可以被归类为一场悄然发生的灾难，对更好地理解问题的维度以及制定社会应对措施提出了挑战。了解地下水系统对气候变化后海平面上升的脆弱性，并了解决定系统响应程度的主要因素，对于制定沿海地区有效的管理和适应战略至关重要。该项目旨在根据 SPP 海平面的预测，确定整个德国湾沿岸含水层对北海海平面上升的反应。为此，将应用大规模区域数值变密度地下水流和输运模型。此外，还将调查预测的地下水盐碱化的社会经济后果，以评估减排方案。特别关注相关社会参与者的看法、知识和学习过程以及适应方案的成本。 拟议研究的目标与 SPP 的总体目标相关，即确定自然和社会沿海系统对未来海平面变化的响应，并评估在给定技术、经济、文化、社会和政治约束下适应海平面变化的策略。