SFB 1310: Predictability in Evolution

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Evolutionary biology has traditionally been concerned with reconstructing past processes and ancestral relationships over long time scales. But can we predict pathways and outcomes of future evolutionary processes, at least over short periods? This is the central question of CRC 1310. We address this question in fast-evolving systems, including microbial populations in the laboratory, viruses and immune repertoires, and cancer cell populations. Predictive analysis in these systems includes the evolution of drug resistance and antigenicity, the evolution of antibodies in immune systems, and the evolution of cancer cells in their organismic environment.To predict evolution, we must link genetic, phenotypic, and environmental changes to causal and reproducible effects on organismic functions and fitness. To map such effects, we analyze massively parallel and time-resolved evolutionary processes in experiment and theory. Quantifying power and limitations of predictability sheds new light on long-standing questions of chance and necessity in evolution. At the same time, we ask a new question: can we harvest predictions for control of evolution? Answering this question is key to the bio-medical applications of our work. These include the design of antibiotics, of vaccines for influenza and SARS-CoV-2, and of therapies for cancer.Our research programme builds on high-throughput analysis of genomic sequences, molecular interactions, cell metabolism and growth. We are advancing these tools to a coherent technology for evolution. The CRC unites a strong and interdisciplinary spectrum of competence in molecular genetics, biophysics, medicine, and theoretical modelling. Together, we endeavor to increase the predictability of evolution.