Urban climate change: scenarios of system events

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The proposed research project aims for the development of scenarios of system events in the scope of urban climate change. The scenarios provide well-grounded, locally differentiated and particularly descriptive information about system events in a future climate. The concept is based on a realistic and coherent assessment of relevent weather events and the consideration of the specific local vulnerability.The research concept is developed and evaluated on the basis of a case study. As system event air temperature extremes which are highly relevant for the thermal load of the urban population are analysed. In the framework of the case study the medium sized city of Augsburg, Bavaria (Pop: 283544, 31.12.2014, Amt für Statistik und Stadtforschung, Stadt Augsburg 2015) will be considered. This city is highly suited as target region because of the already existing available urban climatological data base and its nearby location.Based on the results of the case study a comprehensive evaluation of the concept of scenarios of system events is done. An extensive analysis with respect to the possibility of its generalization to other climatically induced system events (e.g. heavy rainfall events, drought) and other cities with differing makro- and mesoscale settings is performed.