FOR 896: Predictability and Dynamics of Weather Systems in the Atlantic-European Sector (PANDOWAE)

准确的数值天气预报对于减轻高影响天气系统对生命和财产的威胁至关重要。在欧洲，各种不同的系统对数值天气预报提出了重大挑战。这些包括冬季风暴、地中海气旋、洪水事件、中尺度对流系统和热带气旋，它们转变为热带气旋外系统。PANDOWAE的目的是提高我们对造成高影响天气系统发展的动力过程的认识和理解，阐明限制这种系统可预测性的因素，并为基础研究做出贡献，从而开发创新的交互式天气预报系统。大多数威胁西欧和中欧的高影响力天气事件，虽然规模往往很小，但其发展是由于更大规模的运动。在南极-欧洲部分，对流层上层急流的结构在欧洲高影响天气的发展中起着至关重要的作用。因此，PANDOWAE三个研究领域中的第一个是急流中的扰动，称为上层Rossby波列;它们的产生，传播和破碎。第二个研究领域是与水的相变相关的过程。它们可能引起对流层低层的扰动，称为非绝热罗斯贝波，它可以导致强烈气旋的发展，这是该研究领域的焦点之一。第三个研究领域考虑如何使用相同情况的不同预测的集合（集合）和它们的灵活计算取决于流量的状态。这些方法有可能以根本的方式改善HIW的预测。为了实现上述目标，研究部门将利用几个业务预报模型的数据进行气候学、联合案例研究、数据影响研究等。PANDOWAE将代表德国对世界气象组织（WMO）的“世界天气研究计划”（THORPEX）的有力贡献。

Accurate numerical weather forecasts are essential for the mitigation of the threat to life and property presented by high-impact weather systems. In Europe a variety of different systems present significant challenges for numerical weather prediction. These include winter storms, Mediterranean cyclones, flooding events, mesoscale convective systems and tropical cyclones, which transform into extratropical systems. The aim of PANDOWAE is to advance our knowledge and understanding of the dynamical processes responsible for the development of high-impact weather systems, to elucidate the factors that limit the predictability of such systems, and to contribute the basic research that will lead to the development of innovative interactive weather forecasting systems. The majority of these high-impact weather events that threaten western and central Europe, while often small in scale, owe their development to larger scale motions. In the Atlantic-European sector the structure of the upper-tropospheric jetstream plays a crucial role in the development of European high-impact weather. Thus the first of the three PANDOWAE research areas are disturbances in the jet stream, called upper-level Rossby wave trains; their generation, propagation and wave-breaking. The second research area is about processes associated with phase changes of water. They may cause disturbances in the lower troposphere, called diabatic rossby waves, which can lead to the development of intense cyclones and which are one focus of this research area. The third research area considers how to use a collection of different forecasts of the same situation (ensembles) and their flexible calculation dependent on the state of the flow. Those methods have potential to improve the forecast of HIW in an essential manner. To reach the aims above the Research Unit will work with data of several operational forecast models to perform climatologies, joint case studies, data impact studies and more. PANDOWAE will represent a strong German contribution to the "World Weather Research Programme" THORPEX of the World Meteorological Organisation WMO.