Spatial Verification of High-Resolution Ensemble Forecasts using Wavelet Transformation

VeriWave的目的是开发一种高分辨率集合模式输出的空间验证方法，其中观测具有不可忽略的不确定度。该方法基于小波变换，能够根据感兴趣的物理过程产生复杂的诊断信息，可与基于显著特征的方法相媲美，同时保持了尺度分离方法对噪声的鲁棒性和计算效率。特别强调的是提出的验证分数分量强度、位置、方向和纹理的正交性，这使得人们可以将高维数据减少到仅几个关键特征。我们提出了以下研究目标：(1)定义一个适合手头数据和感兴趣的物理过程的小波变换框架，(2)推导出基于小波的空间验证方法，产生关于强度、位置和纹理的诊断信息，(3)确保该方法对变化的参数和观测不确定性具有健壮性，(4)将方法扩展到集合预报，和(5)通过提供软件和用户手册来传播所提出的方法。所提出的方法将在一系列数据上进行研究，范围从简单的几何测试案例和综合扰动预报到高分辨率案例研究和大型集合数据。

The aim of VeriWave is to develop a method for spatial verification of high-resolution ensemble model output with observations with non-negligible uncertainties. The proposed technique is based on wavelet transforms and bears the potential to yield sophisticated diagnostic information tailored to the physical process of interest and comparable to prominent feature based methods, while retaining the robustness to noise and the computational efficiency of scale separation methods. Particular emphasize lies on the orthogonality of the proposed verification score components intensity, location, orientation and texture, which allows one to reduce the high-dimensional data to only a few key characteristics. We propose the following research objectives: (1) Define an framework of wavelet transformations tailored to the data at hand and the physical process of interest, (2) derive a wavelet based methodology for spatial verification that yields diagnostic information on intensity, location and texture, (3) ensure that the methodology is robust with respect to varying parameters and observational uncertainties, (4) extend methodology to ensemble forecast, and (5) disseminate the proposed method by providing the software together with a user handbook.The proposed method will be studied on a hierarchy of data ranging from simple geometric test cases and synthetically disturbed forecaststo high-resolution case studies and large sets of ensemble data.