The Reciprocal Relationship between Public Opinion and Social Policy

该项目调查民主社会中公众舆论和社会政策之间的相互关系。它提出了两个研究流，一个宏观比较，以确定在历史悠久的民主福利国家的公众舆论和社会政策的一般模式;另一个深入调查德国，以确定更具体的意见，政策机制，在周期中运行，分解随着时间的推移，或保持稳定的平衡。预计该项目至少有两个科学贡献：第一个是进一步发展和测试理论。一些理论主张意见和政策之间的因果效应存在对比，而另一些理论则认为两者是互补的。关于时间的争论也各不相同，无论影响是静态的还是动态的，以及影响是否可以在社会背景下普遍化。宏观比较经验分析将解决这些矛盾，特别是关于一套可概括的跨社会和跨时间的影响。在德国的案例研究中，这些相互竞争的理论可以通过更长的时间序列和更详细的意见和政策测量来梳理。其次，与其他社会相比，在德国，调查公众舆论和社会政策之间相互反馈的研究较少。以前的研究大多是在自由福利国家，如美国和英国，有相对自主的政策制定者，这表明公众舆论的突出作用。与此同时，德国的政策制定者受制于他们的政党，这可能会限制公众舆论的影响力。通过将实证结果与拟议的宏观比较流以及先前对自由国家的意见、政策和制度的研究进行比较，可以了解到德国意见和政策联系的普遍性。

The project investigates the reciprocal relationship between public opinion and social policy in democratic societies. It proposes two research streams, one macro-comparative looking to identify generalized patterns of public opinion and social policy across long-established democratic welfare states; and another investigating Germany in-depth to identify more specific opinion-policy mechanisms as operating in cycles, decomposing over time, or holding steady at equilibrium. At least two scientific contributions are expected from the project: The first is further development and testing of theory. Some theories argue for contrasting causal effects between opinion and policy, while others suggest complementarity. Arguments also vary regarding time, whether effects are static or dynamic, and if effects may be generalized across societal contexts. The macro-comparative empirical analyses will address these contradictions, in particular about a generalizable set of effects across societies and time. In the German case study these competing theories can be teased out using longer time-series and more detailed measurements of opinion and policy. Second, there are fewer studies investigating reciprocal feedback between public opinion and social policy in Germany than in other societies. Most previous research is on liberal welfare states such as the United States and Great Britain which have relatively autonomous policymakers, suggesting a prominent role of public opinion. Germany meanwhile has policymakers beholden to their political parties, potentially restricting the influence of public opinion. Much could be learned about the generalizability of German opinion and policy linkages by comparing empirical results with both the proposed macro-comparative stream, and those of previous research on opinion, policy and institutions in liberal states.