The Reciprocal Relationship between Public Opinion and Social Policy

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The project investigates the reciprocal relationship between public opinion and social policy in democratic societies. It proposes two research streams, one macro-comparative looking to identify generalized patterns of public opinion and social policy across long-established democratic welfare states; and another investigating Germany in-depth to identify more specific opinion-policy mechanisms as operating in cycles, decomposing over time, or holding steady at equilibrium. At least two scientific contributions are expected from the project: The first is further development and testing of theory. Some theories argue for contrasting causal effects between opinion and policy, while others suggest complementarity. Arguments also vary regarding time, whether effects are static or dynamic, and if effects may be generalized across societal contexts. The macro-comparative empirical analyses will address these contradictions, in particular about a generalizable set of effects across societies and time. In the German case study these competing theories can be teased out using longer time-series and more detailed measurements of opinion and policy. Second, there are fewer studies investigating reciprocal feedback between public opinion and social policy in Germany than in other societies. Most previous research is on liberal welfare states such as the United States and Great Britain which have relatively autonomous policymakers, suggesting a prominent role of public opinion. Germany meanwhile has policymakers beholden to their political parties, potentially restricting the influence of public opinion. Much could be learned about the generalizability of German opinion and policy linkages by comparing empirical results with both the proposed macro-comparative stream, and those of previous research on opinion, policy and institutions in liberal states.