Development of high resolution global-flood forecasting system with long lead time

开发周期长的高分辨率全球洪水预报系统

• 批准号: 21K14386
• 负责人: 馬 文超
• 金额: $ 3万
• 依托单位: The University of Tokyo
• 依托单位国家: 日本
• 项目类别: Grant-in-Aid for Early-Career Scientists
• 财政年份: 2021
• 资助国家: 日本
• 起止时间: 2021-04-01 至 2024-03-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/en/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-21K14386/
• 关键词: flood forecasting; ensemble system

To achieve the 1st year’s target, I have finished downloading historical data from the ECMWF center. After that, decoding the original data for running the land surface model, MATSIRO, and CaMa-flood is finished from 2001 to 2020. Decoding ECMWF forcing data involves spatial and temporal downscaling. Simulation of the land surface model and CaMa-flood have been smoothly carried out. Using this forcing dataset, we successfully get more than eight days of forecasting, which is more than five times longer than our previous flood forecasting achievement (39 hours by MSM, in Japan only).These historical results will contribute to analyzing historical river water depth worldwide. The automatic system is partly built and will finish construction in the 2nd year.

为了完成第一年的目标，我已经从ECMWF中心下载了历史数据。之后，完成了2001 - 2020年陆地表面模型、MATSIRO和CaMa-flood运行原始数据的解码。解码ECMWF强迫数据涉及空间和时间降尺度。陆面模型和CaMa-flood的模拟工作顺利进行。利用这个强迫数据集，我们成功地获得了超过8天的预测，这比我们以前的洪水预测成果（仅在日本，MSM的预测时间为39小时）长了5倍多。这些历史结果将有助于分析世界范围内历史河流水深。自动化系统已部分建成，将于第二年完工。

项目成果

2019年台風19号に関する日本全国洪水概況予測システムの性能評価

2019年第19号台风日本国家洪水概要预报系统的性能评估

• 发表时间: 2021
• 作者: 馬 文超;石塚 悠太;竹島 晃;日比野 研志;山崎 大;山本 晃輔;可知 美佐子;沖 理子;沖 大幹;芳村 圭
• 通讯作者: 芳村 圭