Alpine-treeline spatial patterns as indicators for climate-change responses: a global study using community-supported pattern-based modelling

高山林线空间模式作为气候变化响应指标：使用社区支持的基于模式的建模进行的全球研究

• 批准号: 419961979
• 负责人: Professorin Dr. Maaike Bader
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: Department Ökologische Systemanalyse
• 依托单位国家: 德国
• 项目类别: Research Grants
• 财政年份: 2019
• 资助国家: 德国
• 起止时间: 2018-12-31 至 2022-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gepris.dfg.de/gepris/projekt/419961979?language=en
• 关键词: Alpine; treeline; spatial; patterns; indicators

The potential elevation of alpine treelines can be predicted well at the global scale based on temperature. However, at more local scales positions of treeline ecotones vary strongly and are harder to predict because other, more site- and species-specific factors play an increasingly important role. Similarly, local dynamics are highly variable among sites and it is unclear whether and how different treelines may advance because of climatic change. Advancing treelines, or denser forests below the treeline, would have important implications for the global carbon cycle and alpine biodiversity. To better understand treeline-forming processes and to predict treeline shifts in response to climatic changes, we will collaborate with an established group of treeline experts and modellers to reveal the links between spatial patterns and ecological processes in alpine-treeline ecotones around the world. In this project we aim to 1) develop a spatially-explicit individual-based treeline simulation model, 2) test hypotheses of pattern-process relationships using the model and existing spatiotemporal treeline datasets, and 3) predict treeline dynamics and shifts in response to climate change. By synthesising and formalising process knowledge as well as geographically dispersed spatio-temporal treeline data, this project will create a step-change in treeline research by providing the tools for globally-coordinated observational, experimental and simulation research at treeline in the context of ecological regime shifts.

根据温度可以很好地预测全球范围内高山树线的潜在海拔。然而，在更多的地方尺度上，树线交错区的位置变化很大，很难预测，因为其他更多的网站和物种的特定因素发挥越来越重要的作用。同样，当地的动态在不同地点之间变化很大，目前还不清楚不同的树木是否以及如何由于气候变化而发展。推进树线，或树线下更密集的森林，将对全球碳循环和高山生物多样性产生重要影响。为了更好地了解树线形成过程，并预测树线的变化，以应对气候变化，我们将与一个既定的树线专家和建模小组合作，以揭示世界各地的高山-树线交错带的空间格局和生态过程之间的联系。在这个项目中，我们的目标是：1）开发一个空间上明确的基于个体的树线模拟模型，2）使用模型和现有的时空树线数据集测试模式-过程关系的假设，3）预测树线动态和响应气候变化的变化。通过综合和正式化过程知识以及地理上分散的时空树线数据，该项目将通过在生态制度转变的背景下为树线的全球协调观测，实验和模拟研究提供工具，从而在树线研究中创造一个台阶式的变化。