Alpine-treeline spatial patterns as indicators for climate-change responses: a global study using community-supported pattern-based modelling

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The potential elevation of alpine treelines can be predicted well at the global scale based on temperature. However, at more local scales positions of treeline ecotones vary strongly and are harder to predict because other, more site- and species-specific factors play an increasingly important role. Similarly, local dynamics are highly variable among sites and it is unclear whether and how different treelines may advance because of climatic change. Advancing treelines, or denser forests below the treeline, would have important implications for the global carbon cycle and alpine biodiversity. To better understand treeline-forming processes and to predict treeline shifts in response to climatic changes, we will collaborate with an established group of treeline experts and modellers to reveal the links between spatial patterns and ecological processes in alpine-treeline ecotones around the world. In this project we aim to 1) develop a spatially-explicit individual-based treeline simulation model, 2) test hypotheses of pattern-process relationships using the model and existing spatiotemporal treeline datasets, and 3) predict treeline dynamics and shifts in response to climate change. By synthesising and formalising process knowledge as well as geographically dispersed spatio-temporal treeline data, this project will create a step-change in treeline research by providing the tools for globally-coordinated observational, experimental and simulation research at treeline in the context of ecological regime shifts.