Impact of climate on grain legume yield stability

农业系统的弹性是适应气候变化的关键。作为衡量种植系统弹性的指标，临时产量稳定性面临着气候变异性增加和极端天气事件增加的问题。产量稳定性与欧洲种植的谷物豆类特别相关，这些豆类产生高质量的蛋白质和一系列生态系统服务。豆类谷物的产量往往比其他作物更不稳定，而且有初步迹象表明，产量稳定性有所下降。不同豆科谷物品种在不同环境中的产量稳定性与气候变率变化和极端天气事件之间的关系还没有足够的证据。需要这样的分析和对所涉过程的基本了解，以便为农学和植物育种工作提供信息，以使谷物和豆类种植制度适应气候变化。“气候对谷物豆类产量稳定性的影响”项目将使用新的统计方法和模拟模型相结合的方法，在欧洲的六个长期实验(LTE)中量化豌豆、蚕豆和大豆产量稳定性的时间稳定性变化和气候对产量稳定性的影响。总体的研究问题是：(I)过去60年间豆类作物产量稳定性是否下降？(Ii)气候变异性变化与产量稳定性之间是否存在关系？(Iii)特定作物生育期的天气事件对产量稳定性的影响是否大于年度趋势？(Iv)统计方法和模拟模型的结合是否比单一方法有助于更好地解释影响产量稳定性的因素？这些问题导致了以下目标：(I)量化气候变异性与欧洲不同生物物理条件下豆类籽粒产量稳定性之间的关系；(Ii)量化年平均降水量和温度对产量稳定性的影响；(Iii)量化开花和结荚期间平均降水和温度对产量稳定性的影响；(Iv)使用统计方法和模拟模拟相结合的方法，量化开花和结荚期间干旱和高温胁迫对产量稳定性的影响。来自欧洲六个LTE的作物产量、物候和天气数据将为应用新的统计分析提供基础，这些分析使用经比例调整的产量稳定性指标、混合线性模型和基于过程的模拟模型。这些方法的结合使我们能够检测过去几十年来产量稳定性变化的一般趋势，以及气候变异性和产量稳定性之间的关系，这使我们对产量稳定性的科学知识超出了最先进的水平。

The resilience of agricultural systems is key in adapting to climate change. Temporal yield stability, as a measure for the resilience of cropping systems, is confronted by the increased climate variability and increased occurrence of extreme weather events. Yield stability is particularly relevant in Europe-grown grain legumes which produce high quality protein and a range of ecosystem services. Grain legume yields tend to be more variable than other crops and there are first indications of a decrease in yield stability. There is insufficient evidence on the relationship between yield stability of different grain legume species in different environments and changes in climate variability and extreme weather events. Such analyses and a fundamental understanding of the processes involved are needed to inform agronomy and plant breeding efforts to adapt grain legume cropping systems to climate change. The project “Impact of climate on grain legume yield stability” will quantify changes in temporal yield stability and the influence of climate on yield stability for pea, faba bean and soybean in six long-term experiments (LTE) across Europe using a combination of novel statistical methods and simulation modelling. The overall research questions are: (i) did grain legume yield stability decrease during the last 60 years?, (ii) is there a relationship between changes in climate variability and yield stability?, (iii) are weather events during specific crop growth phases affecting yield stability more than annual trends?, and (iv) does the combination of statistical methods and simulation models help to better explain the factors contributing to yield stability than a single method? These questions lead to the following objectives, i.e. (i) to quantify the relationship between climate variability and yield stability for grain legumes in LTE under different bio-physical conditions across Europe, (ii) to quantify the effect of mean annual precipitation and temperature on yield stability, (iii) to quantify the effect of mean precipitation and temperature during flowering and pod filling on yield stability, and (iv) to quantify the effect of drought and heat-stress during flowering and pod filling on yield stability using a combination of statistical methods and simulation modelling. Data on crop yields, phenology and weather from the six LTE across Europe will provide the basis to apply novel statistical analyses using a scale-adjusted yield stability indicator, mixed linear models and process-based simulation models. The combination of these methods enables detecting general trends in yield stability changes over the last decades and relationships between climate variability and yield stability that bring our scientific knowledge on yield stability beyond the state of the art.