Effects of the Construction of Golf Course on Runoff Characteristics

近年来，许多地方政府对新建高尔夫球场进行了严格的限制，因为它们会破坏环境。例如，地方政府规定了其领土内高尔夫球场总数和总面积的上限。然而，很难指出这些规定的科学依据。本研究的主要目的是提供高尔夫球场建设对区域水文现象影响的评价方法。(1)现场观测施工前后的水文观测非常重要。本文对1991 ~ 1993年新建高尔夫球场施工现场的降雨量、流量、浊度和水质进行了测量。该高尔夫球场于1992年开始建造，预计1995年提供服务。现在就得出高尔夫球场对径流特性的影响还为时过早。(2)径流变化的理论探测方法 ...更多信息 特征--蓄能函数模型的随机响应--径流特征变化的评价是一个非常困难的问题。即使高尔夫球场建设前后的过程线发生了变化，我们也要判断这种变化是真实的还是在误差范围内。然而，很难估计误差的范围。如果我们提供估计流量的置信水平，这个问题将得到解决。为了得到流量的置信度，必须驱动流量的概率密度函数。另一方面，蓄泄关系是探测径流机制变化的直接方法。认为蓄能模型的随机响应为上述问题提供了解决途径，所有真实的水文过程都具有或多或少的随机性。虽然径流过程的动力学是由微分方程描述的，但严格地说，径流现象最好由随机微分方程表示。随机方程可分为三类：1.初始条件描述为随机或概率; 2.微分方程中包含的参数是随机变量; 3.强迫项是随机变量。从理论上得到了放电的前四个中心矩。根据得到的前四个中心矩，可以估计出放电的概率密度函数。得出了流量概率密度函数可用Gamma分布或对数正态分布近似的结论。少

Recently, many local governments impose severe restrictions on constructing new golf course because they cause destruction of environment. For example, local governments set the upper limit of total number of golf course and its total area within their territory. However, it is difficult to point out scientific justification of these regulations. The main aim of this research provides methods how to evaluate effects of the construction of golf course on regional hydrological phenomena This research consists of two parts.(1) Field observationIt is very important to observe hydrological phenomena before and after the construction. We have measured rainfall, discharge, turbidity and water quality at the construction site of new golf course from 1991 t0 1993. The construction of this golf course began in 1992 and is expected to provide service in 1995. It is too early to conclude effects of this golf course on runoff characteristics.(2) Theoretical approach to detect the change of runoff c … More haracteristics-Stochastic response of storage function model-It is very difficult to evaluate change of runoff characteristics It is well known that all observed data have always some error. Even if hydrograph before and after the construction of golf course shows some change, we have to decide this change is real one or within error. However, it is hard to estimate the range of error. This problem will be solved if we provide the confidence level of estimated discharge. We must drive the probability density function of discharge to obtain its confidence level. On the other hand, the relationship between storage and discharge is a direct method to detect the change of runoff mechanism. It is considered that stochastic response of storage model will provide the solution for above problem.All real hydrologic processes are more or less stochastic. While the dynamics for the runoff process are described by differential equations, strictly speaking, runoff phenomena are best expressed by stochastic differential equations. Stochastic equations are grouped into three classes :1.Initial conditions are described as stochastic or probability.2.The parameters included in differential equations are random variables.3.Forcing terms are random variables.This research focuses on the last class as first step although real runoff phenomena include all three classes. First four central moments of discharge are obtained theoretically. It is possible to estimate the probability density function of discharge based on obtained first four central moments. It is concluded that the probability density function of discharge is approximated by Gamma distribution or log-normal distribution. Less