Effects of the Construction of Golf Course on Runoff Characteristics

最近，许多地方政府对新建高尔夫球场施加了严格的限制，因为它们对环境造成了破坏。例如，地方政府对其境内高尔夫球场的总数和总面积设定了上限。然而，很难指出这些规定的科学合理性。本研究的主要目的是提供如何评价高尔夫球场建设对区域水文现象影响的方法。本研究由两部分组成：(1)现场观测对高尔夫球场建设前后的水文现象进行观测是非常重要的。我们对1991年至1993年新建高尔夫球场工地的降雨量、流量、浊度和水质进行了测量。这座高尔夫球场于1992年动工，预计将于1995年投入使用。现在就断定高尔夫球场对径流特征的影响还为时过早。(2)径流c…变化的理论检测方法更多的特征--存储函数模型的随机响应--很难评价径流特征的变化。众所周知，所有的观测数据都有一定的误差。即使高尔夫球场建设前后的水文出现了一些变化，我们也必须判断这种变化是真实的还是误差范围内的变化。然而，很难估计误差的范围。如果我们提供预估流量的置信度，这个问题就会得到解决。必须对流量的概率密度函数进行驱动，才能得到其置信度。另一方面，蓄流关系是检测径流机制变化的直接手段。蓄水模型的随机响应将为上述问题提供解决方案。所有实际水文过程都或多或少是随机的。虽然径流过程的动力学可以用微分方程来描述，但严格地说，径流现象最好地用随机微分方程来描述。随机方程分为三类：1.初始条件被描述为随机或概率.2.微分方程中包含的参数是随机变量.3.强制项是随机变量.尽管实际径流现象包括所有这三类，但本研究以最后一类为第一步.从理论上得到了前四个放电中心力矩。可以根据获得的前四个中心矩来估计流量的概率密度函数。结果表明，放电概率密度函数近似为伽玛分布或对数正态分布。较少

Recently, many local governments impose severe restrictions on constructing new golf course because they cause destruction of environment. For example, local governments set the upper limit of total number of golf course and its total area within their territory. However, it is difficult to point out scientific justification of these regulations. The main aim of this research provides methods how to evaluate effects of the construction of golf course on regional hydrological phenomena This research consists of two parts.(1) Field observationIt is very important to observe hydrological phenomena before and after the construction. We have measured rainfall, discharge, turbidity and water quality at the construction site of new golf course from 1991 t0 1993. The construction of this golf course began in 1992 and is expected to provide service in 1995. It is too early to conclude effects of this golf course on runoff characteristics.(2) Theoretical approach to detect the change of runoff c … More haracteristics-Stochastic response of storage function model-It is very difficult to evaluate change of runoff characteristics It is well known that all observed data have always some error. Even if hydrograph before and after the construction of golf course shows some change, we have to decide this change is real one or within error. However, it is hard to estimate the range of error. This problem will be solved if we provide the confidence level of estimated discharge. We must drive the probability density function of discharge to obtain its confidence level. On the other hand, the relationship between storage and discharge is a direct method to detect the change of runoff mechanism. It is considered that stochastic response of storage model will provide the solution for above problem.All real hydrologic processes are more or less stochastic. While the dynamics for the runoff process are described by differential equations, strictly speaking, runoff phenomena are best expressed by stochastic differential equations. Stochastic equations are grouped into three classes :1.Initial conditions are described as stochastic or probability.2.The parameters included in differential equations are random variables.3.Forcing terms are random variables.This research focuses on the last class as first step although real runoff phenomena include all three classes. First four central moments of discharge are obtained theoretically. It is possible to estimate the probability density function of discharge based on obtained first four central moments. It is concluded that the probability density function of discharge is approximated by Gamma distribution or log-normal distribution. Less