Empirical Prediction of Ground MOton Intensity Based on Observed Strong-Motion Records and Wave Generation and Propagation Theory

为了经验地震动预报，根据日本强震记录，提出了峰值地震动速度衰减关系。首先收集整理了日本强震观测记录。利用该数据集，编制了峰值振幅、同相轴和台站数据，并考虑震源谱特征、震源区地震动强度饱和度和场地效应，建立了衰减关系的函数形式。关系式中的参数为矩震级、震源距和地面平均剪切波速。利用日本7次6.5 ~ 7.8级地震的近100条强震记录，通过统计分析，建立了衰减关系，并与1995年兵库县南部地震及其它破坏性地震的观测结果进行了比较。该关系与观测结果吻合良好，表明所提出的关系适用于近距离。

For Empirical prediction of strong-ground motion, the attenuation relationship of peak ground velocity is proposed from Japanese strong-motion records. Firstly the strong-motion records observed in Japan are collected and compiled. Using the dataset, the peak amplitudes as well as event and station data are compiled.The functional form of the attenuation relationship is set considering source spectral characteristics, saturation of ground motion intensity in source area, and site effect. The parameters in the relationship are moment magnitude, source distance, and average shear wave velocity of ground. Using about 100 strongmotion records from seven Japanese earthquakes with M of 6.5 to 7.8, the attenuation relationship is developed by the statistical analysis.The relationship proposed is compared with observations during the 1995 Hyougo-ken-nanbu earthquake and other destructive earthquakes. The relationship shows good agreements with the observation, indicating that the relationship proposed would be applicable at close distances.