Changing labor markets in unequal societies: Challenges from heterogeneity in labor market risk

劳动力市场不断变化。像德国哈茨改革这样的激烈政策改革，所有工业化国家数字化和自动化带来的技术变革，以及来自中国和其他国家的日益激烈的全球竞争，都引发了人们的担忧，即劳动力市场的变化甚至加速了，以至于今天的劳动力面临更高的劳动力市场风险，更少的工作保障和高度的不平等。失业带来的更高的劳动力市场风险和终身工作消失带来的更低的工作保障，以及技术变革和全球化带来的机会，对所有工人来说可能都不一样，在整个劳动力市场上可能会有很大的差异。可以想象，快速的劳动力市场变化甚至放大了现有的差异，并加强了对劳动力市场风险增加和不平等加剧的担忧。但劳动力市场风险的差异有多大？这些差异如何影响家庭的消费和财务决策？他们如何影响关键的财务决策，如房屋所有权？政府是否应该重新设计社会保障体系，如失业或养老金体系，以考虑劳动力市场风险的异质性？经济研究仍然缺乏对这些关键问题的答案。拟议的研究项目旨在填补这一空白。它建立在理论和实证经济研究的最新进展基础上，并依靠不同来源的高质量微观数据提供答案。从宏观经济学的观点出发，从应用微观经济学到财政学、经济学理论等不同领域进行研究。实证部分的目的是利用德国的社会保障数据，对劳动市场风险的异质性提供新的证据，并对家庭的劳动市场经验与财政状况的关系进行实证。理论部分的目标是开发一个模型框架，将劳动力市场风险的异质性纳入财务决策模型。该模型将以相互作用的劳动力市场决策，收入动态和财务决策为特征，此外，收入动态适应宏观经济环境的变化，无论是劳动力市场改革还是技术变革。我还计划通过纳入代表房地产市场独特属性的额外投资组合选择决策来进一步完善财务决策。如果研究计划将是成功的，那么使用这些新开发的模型结合经验证据将使我能够解决紧迫的问题，在不平等的社会中不断变化的劳动力市场。该研究项目所能给出的答案对于解决重要的宏观经济和公共政策问题至关重要。

Labor markets undergo constant change. Drastic policy reforms like the Hartz reforms in Germany, technological change from digitalization and automation in all industrialized countries, and rising global competition from China and others have raised concerns that changes in labor markets have even accelerated so that today’s workforce faces higher labor market risks, less job security, and high levels of inequality. Higher labor market risks from unemployment and lower job security from the disappearance of life-time jobs but also opportunities that arise from technological change and globalization are likely not the same for all workers and might differ substantially across the workforce. It is conceivable that fast-paced labor market change even amplified the existing differences and reinforced concerns of increased labor market risks and rising inequality. But how large are differences in labor market risks? How do these differences shape consumption and financial decision-making of households? How do they affect key financial decisions like homeownership? Should governments redesign social security systems like the unemployment or old-age pension system to take heterogeneity in labor market risk into account? Economic research still lacks answers to such pivotal questions. The proposed research project aims at filling this void. It builds on recent advances in theoretical and empirical economic research and relies on high-quality microdata from different sources in providing answers. While taking a macroeconomic viewpoint, the work program reaches out into different fields from applied microeconomics to public finance, and economic theory.The goal of the empirical part of the project is to provide new evidence on heterogeneity in labor market risk using German social security data and to document facts on the relationship between households’ labor market experience and their financial situation. The goal for the theoretical part is to develop a model framework that incorporates heterogeneity in labor market risk into a model of financial decision making. The model is going to feature interacting labor market decisions, earnings dynamics, and financial decision making, and furthermore, earnings dynamics that adapt to changes in the macroeconomic environment be it from labor market reforms or technological change. I also plan to further refine financial decision making by incorporating an additional portfolio choice decision that represents the distinctive properties of the housing market. If the research program will be successful, then using these newly developed models in combination with the empirical evidence will enable me to address pressing questions regarding changing labor markets in unequal societies. The answers the research program can give will be paramount to address important macroeconomic and public policy questions.