Linked spiral of silence: The process of public opinion formation from the meso perspective

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The theory of the spiral of silence discusses the conditions under which members of a society take part in the public discourse and thus contribute to public opinion. The strength of the theory is the dynamic connection between the individual and the societal perspectives; one of the major points of criticism, though, is the lacking attention regarding the meso perspective. Noelle-Neumann exclusively concentrates on the anonymous public, whereas she rarely takes into consideration social surroundings like friends or family. Unjustifiably so, as is often discussed in research on the spiral of silence.This is where our project starts. We focus on the role of the social surroundings in the process of public opinion formation: To what extent do individuals use not only mass media but also social surroundings to monitor the environment? How do social surroundings serve as an authority of social control – similar to the society according to Noelle-Neumann? How do individuals behave if society and social surroundings demand different things? How are the perception of the climate of opinion and the willingness to admit to a certain opinion influenced? To answer these questions, we aim to empirically analyze and to theoretically integrate social surroundings as an influential variable in the process of public opinion formation. From a theoretical perspective, we tie in with the model of sociological explanation. We understand social surroundings as a net of all relevant social relationships of an individual. Thus, we are able to model peer groups as well as relevant individual relationships – online and offline – and to analyze their influence in the process of public opinion formation. Another goal is to focus more strongly on digital developments. For example, what is the difference between the online and offline willingness to admit to a certain opinion? How does a possible anonymity in the digital area affect fear of isolation? And how do digital sources influence our observation of the environment and the perception of the opinion climate? From the current state of research and the model of sociological explanation, a research model was developed and hypotheses were derived. These are related to the role of social surroundings as well as to the digital developments in the top-down process of public opinion formation regarding observation of environment, fear of isolation, perception of opinion climate, willingness to admit to a certain opinion and adaption of opinions. Core of the project is a three-wave panel study with which all causal hypotheses can be tested. To be able to describe the various sources of the observation of environment, we additionally aim to integrate a diary study into the panel study. Our project contributes to a better understanding of public opinion formation: linked by a spiral of silence – socially and digitally.