Linked spiral of silence: The process of public opinion formation from the meso perspective

沉默螺旋理论探讨的是社会成员参与公共话语并对公共舆论做出贡献的条件。该理论的优势在于个体与社会视角之间的动态联系；然而，批评的主要观点之一是缺乏对中观视角的关注。诺埃尔-诺伊曼只关注无名大众，而很少考虑朋友或家人等社会环境。这是不合理的，正如在沉默的螺旋研究中经常讨论的那样。这就是我们项目开始的地方。我们关注社会环境在舆论形成过程中的作用：个体在多大程度上不仅利用大众媒体，还利用社会环境来监测环境？社会环境如何作为社会控制的权威——类似于诺埃尔-诺伊曼所说的社会？如果社会和社会环境要求不同的东西，个人会如何表现？对舆论氛围的感知和承认某种观点的意愿是如何受到影响的？为了回答这些问题，我们旨在实证分析和理论整合社会环境作为舆论形成过程中的影响变量。从理论的角度来看，我们与社会学解释模式相结合。我们把社会环境理解为个人所有相关社会关系的网络。因此，我们能够模拟同伴群体以及相关的个人关系——线上和线下——并分析它们在舆论形成过程中的影响。另一个目标是更加注重数字发展。例如，线上和线下愿意承认某种观点的区别是什么？数字领域可能的匿名性如何影响对孤立的恐惧？数字资源如何影响我们对环境的观察和对舆论气候的感知？从研究现状和社会学解释模式出发，建立了研究模型，并提出了假设。这与社会环境的作用有关，也与自上而下的舆论形成过程中对环境的观察、对孤立的恐惧、对舆论气候的感知、对某种舆论的承认意愿和对舆论的适应等方面的数字化发展有关。该项目的核心是一个三波面板研究，所有的因果假设都可以被测试。为了能够描述环境观察的各种来源，我们还打算将日记研究整合到小组研究中。我们的项目有助于更好地理解公众舆论的形成：通过沉默的螺旋连接-社交和数字。

The theory of the spiral of silence discusses the conditions under which members of a society take part in the public discourse and thus contribute to public opinion. The strength of the theory is the dynamic connection between the individual and the societal perspectives; one of the major points of criticism, though, is the lacking attention regarding the meso perspective. Noelle-Neumann exclusively concentrates on the anonymous public, whereas she rarely takes into consideration social surroundings like friends or family. Unjustifiably so, as is often discussed in research on the spiral of silence.This is where our project starts. We focus on the role of the social surroundings in the process of public opinion formation: To what extent do individuals use not only mass media but also social surroundings to monitor the environment? How do social surroundings serve as an authority of social control – similar to the society according to Noelle-Neumann? How do individuals behave if society and social surroundings demand different things? How are the perception of the climate of opinion and the willingness to admit to a certain opinion influenced? To answer these questions, we aim to empirically analyze and to theoretically integrate social surroundings as an influential variable in the process of public opinion formation. From a theoretical perspective, we tie in with the model of sociological explanation. We understand social surroundings as a net of all relevant social relationships of an individual. Thus, we are able to model peer groups as well as relevant individual relationships – online and offline – and to analyze their influence in the process of public opinion formation. Another goal is to focus more strongly on digital developments. For example, what is the difference between the online and offline willingness to admit to a certain opinion? How does a possible anonymity in the digital area affect fear of isolation? And how do digital sources influence our observation of the environment and the perception of the opinion climate? From the current state of research and the model of sociological explanation, a research model was developed and hypotheses were derived. These are related to the role of social surroundings as well as to the digital developments in the top-down process of public opinion formation regarding observation of environment, fear of isolation, perception of opinion climate, willingness to admit to a certain opinion and adaption of opinions. Core of the project is a three-wave panel study with which all causal hypotheses can be tested. To be able to describe the various sources of the observation of environment, we additionally aim to integrate a diary study into the panel study. Our project contributes to a better understanding of public opinion formation: linked by a spiral of silence – socially and digitally.