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Group Size uncertainty in shared resource use

共享资源使用中的组规模不确定性

基本信息

批准号：
04610033
负责人：
TAKIGAWA Tetsuo
金额：
$ 1.15万
依托单位：
Hokkaido University
依托单位国家：
日本
项目类别：
Grant-in-Aid for General Scientific Research (C)
财政年份：
1992
资助国家：
日本
起止时间：
1992 至 1993
项目状态：
已结题

项目摘要

Prior work on the use of shared or common resources has studied the impact of uncertainty about the amount of resource available to a group, evnironmental uncertainty, and uncertainty ablut the behavior of others, social uncertainty.This study examines yet another source of uncertainty, that pertaining to the number of participants. We call this group size uncertainty. After contrasting group size uncertainty with environmental uncertainty, we develop a prototypical situation involving multiple sources within which group size uncertainty can be studied. Equilibrium solutions based on strategic analysis are developed for simple cases and the properties of the equilibria are described. We then address the question of whether a simple trial-and-error learning process will be able to find the equilibria. The answer to this question is clearly "no". The equilibria found by the learning model are quite different not only from the strategic analysis but also from thegame theoretic Nash equilibria suggesting the need to construct a hybrid theory of trial-and-error learning and strategic perspective for predicting human behavior.

先前关于共享或公共资源使用的工作研究了群体可用资源量的不确定性、环境不确定性以及他人行为的不确定性、社会不确定性的影响。本研究探讨了另一个不确定性来源，即与参与者数量有关的不确定性。我们称之为群体规模的不确定性。在对比组规模的不确定性与环境的不确定性，我们开发了一个原型的情况下，涉及多个来源，其中组规模的不确定性可以研究。针对简单情况开发了基于战略分析的均衡解，并描述了均衡的性质。然后，我们解决一个简单的试错学习过程是否能够找到均衡的问题。这个问题的答案显然是否定的。学习模型发现的均衡不仅与战略分析不同，而且与博弈论的纳什均衡也不同，这表明有必要构建一个混合理论来预测人类行为。