ThinkALPS - Thermokinematic models including Uncertainty of Geometry in the Alps

热运动学模型是理解俯冲极性反转对阿尔卑斯山演化影响的关键，因为它们提供了对折返的空间分布和时间的限制。然而，最先进的模型无法解释深度结构的不确定性，这使得无法确定检测到的挖掘信号背后的驱动力。在这个项目中，我们将建立例程，以考虑热运动学模型中的全部几何不确定性。我们将首先将这些例程应用于阿尔卑斯山北部的前陆褶皱冲断带，即亚高山的莫拉塞。这一地区特别适合研究造山带的大规模动力学，因为它连接着阿尔卑斯山及其前陆，造山锋的进退直接与造山过程有关；虽然持续的板块会聚将导致前陆沉积逐渐并入造山楔体，但构造制度的变化将直接见诸于构造活动序列以及亚高山磨拉石的几何形状。同时，亚高山磨拉石由前陆盆地沉积组成，直接记录了腹地历史。我们的热运动学模型将展示当考虑到深度的几何不确定性时，热年代学信号是多么独特。在最后一步，我们将在造山带尺度上应用我们的例程，在推测俯冲极性反转的区域。我们将测试标准的热运动学模型是否真的能够区分掘尸信号背后的不同驱动因素。我们将确定需要精确和准确模型数据的关键区域，并将对这些区域进行研究，以提供与板块动力学相关的深层次过程在东阿尔卑斯山影响挖掘估计的定量估计。

Thermokinematic models are key for understanding the influence of subduction polarity reversal on the evolution of the Alps, as they provide constraints on the spatial distribution and timing of exhumation. However, state-of-the-art models cannot account for uncertainty of structures at depth, which makes it impossible to determine the driving force behind detected exhumation signals. In this project, we will build routines that allow for accounting for full geometric uncertainty in thermokinematic models. We will first apply these routines to the northern foreland fold-thrust-belt of the Alps, the Subalpine Molasse. This area is particularly suited to resolve large-scale dynamics of the orogen, as it links the Alps with its foreland, and prograding or backstepping of the orogenic front is directly linked to orogenic processes; while continuous plate convergence will result in progressive incorporation of foreland sediments in the orogenic wedge, changes in the tectonic regime would be directly witnessed in the sequence of tectonic activity as well as the geometry of the Subalpine Molasse. At the same time, the Subalpine Molasse consists of foreland basin sediments, which directly record the hinterland history. Our thermokinematic models will show how unique thermochronological signals can be when the uncertainty of geometry at depth is taken into account.In a final step, we will apply our routines at the orogen scale, in the region where a subduction polarity reversal has been conjectured. We will test whether standard thermokinematic models are indeed able to distinguish between different drivers behind exhumation signals. We will identify key regions where data for precise and accurate models are required, and will study these to provide a quantitative estimate how much deep seated processes related to slab dynamics imprint exhumation estimates in the Eastern Alps.