An econometric analysis on tropical deforestation and wood ttrade using 1990 tropical forest resources assessment

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Shifting cultivation, grazing, gathering fuelwood, logging, and fires, especially if excessive, are considered as main causes for tropical deforestation, which draws world wide attention as a current and worldwide environmental issue. It is, however, very difficult to assess relative importance of these causal factors, since they are intermingled. This report tries to sort out these factors, using an econometric method, i.e.multiple regression analysis. We utilize cross sectional country data from FAO Forestry Paper 112, "Forest resources assessment 1990 tropical counties", Rome, 1993, x+59pp.with appendices and FAO Forestry Series No.26 (FAO Statistics Series No.110), "FAO yearbook forest products", Rome, various years.In analyzing country data on deforestation, we should remove a scale factor, since it natural to find larger deforestation in a lager country. This study utilizes per capita variables becauses deforestation is a human made phenomenon.This study reveals that per capita forest area, agricultural area, and logging area have positive effects on per capita deforestation, whereas permanent pasture area has a negative effect, probably reflecting non-traditional shifting cultivation and illegal farming target permanent pasture in place of forest.