Population Changes and Their Structural Factors in Long-Term Perspective

本研究利用政府的综合统计数据、近代初期的仁别留目町、周门新留目町的地方人口登记数据和近代的全国调查数据，对日本从16世纪到21世纪初的人口变化的模式和因素进行了研究。将所考察的4个世纪划分为4个时期--从世纪到德川时代末期的近代早期（bakursu）、现代普查前时期、现代普查时期和战后时期，该项目试图对人口变化的趋势和模式及其人口、社会经济和家庭决定因素进行实证分析，结合正式的人口统计学分析和多变量分析，我们具体地研究了不同生命阶段的死亡率、已婚妇女的生育率和家庭建立以及农村社区的初婚和再婚的趋势和模式， 关于我们 位于近代日本的东北部、中部和西南部。接下来，我们研究了死亡率的决定因素，生育率，婚姻，并在东北农村社区的迁移，使用事件历史分析。然后，我们分析了从19世纪70年代到1919年的人口变化的结构和动态，使用日本帝国人口统计。该项目还研究了在大地震前时期死产的趋势和区域模式，以及1918-1920年西班牙流感的爆发对大地震前日本死亡率和人口的影响。接下来，我们使用都道府县的时间序列数据，分析了从战前人口普查到现在的死亡率、生育率和结婚率的趋势、模式和结构因素。最后，该项目利用大规模国家调查的微观数据，研究了战后日本生育率下降的模式和决定因素。进行一系列的事件历史分析，我们研究了人口和社会经济的决定因素的初婚的时间，家庭建设模式适用于日本妇女和男子。少

This research project examined the patterns and factors of population changes in Japan from the 16th century to the early 2000s, using government aggregate statistics and micro-level data drawn from local population registers called ninbertsu-ratame-cho and shumon-aratame-cho during the early modern period and from national surveys in the contemporary period. Dividing the 4 centuries under consideration into 4 periods--the early modern period from the 16th century to the end of Tokugawa era (bakumatsu), the modern precensal period, the modern censal period, and the postwar period, the project sought to empirically analyze the trends and patterns of population changes and their demographic, socioeconomic, and household determinants, combining formal demographic analyses and multivariate analyses.Specifically, we looked at the trends and patterns of mortality at different stages of life, fertility and family building of married women, and first marriage and remarriage in rural communitie … More s in northeast, central, and southwestern parts of early modern Japan. Next, we examined the determinants of mortality, fertility, nuptiality, and migration in northeastern rural communities, using event-history analysis. We then analyzed the structure and dynamics of the precensal population changes from the 1870s to 1919, using the Japanese imperial population statistics. The project also examined the trends and regional patterns of stillbirths during the precensal period, and the outbreak of the Spanish flue in 1918-1920 that affected mortality and population of precensal Japan. We next analyzed the trends, patterns, and structural factors of mortality, fertility, and nuptiality from the prewar censal period to the present, using prefectural-level time-series data. Finally, the project looked at the patterns and determinants of fertility declines in postwar Japan, using micro-level data from large-scale national surveys. Conducting a series of event-history analysis, we examined the demographic and socioeconomic determinants of timing of first marriage, and family building patterns applying of Japanese women and men. Less