Hyojung Lee

拟议的研究项目旨在使用流行病学建模方法，量化无症状感染和性传播与其他传播途径相比对埃博拉病毒病（EVD）二次传播事件的相对贡献。世界卫生组织定义的埃博拉零病例标准没有明确说明性传播，导致2015-2016年西非多次复发事件，部分确实是由性传播引起的。我们提出了一个统计模型来计算EVD流行结束的概率，考虑到性传播和病例的不确定性。通过分析几内亚、利比里亚和塞拉利昂的数据，我们客观地认为，这一流行病已经结束。

The proposed research project aims to quantify the relative contributions of asymptomatic infection and of sexual transmission compared with other routes of transmission to secondary transmission event of Ebola virus disease (EVD) using epidemiological modelling approaches. The criteria of zero Ebola cases defined by the World Health Organization did not explicitly account for the sexual transmission and led to multiple recrudescent events in West Africa from 2015-2016, partly indeed caused by sexual transmission. We proposed a statistical model to compute the probability of the end of an EVD epidemic, accounting for sexual transmission and under-ascertainment of cases. Analyzing the data in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone, we objectively offers the end of an epidemic.