A Bayesian approach to the program evaluation of infrastructures

对于块费率递减定价下居民用气需求函数的估计，详细阐述了精确经济模型的贝叶斯估计方法。获得的结果收集在一篇文章中，这篇文章被注册为讨论论文，并提交给可能发表的期刊。其次，针对干线铁路的方案评价，在经典的治理效果评价模型的基础上，建立了新的统计模型。对于这个模型，我构建了一个贝叶斯估计方法，并通过数值算例进行了验证。并将该模型和方法应用于九州高速铁路线的实证分析。

Regarding the estimation of the residential gas demand function under decreasing block rate pricing, I elaborated a Bayesian estimation method for the exact economic model. Obtained results are collected in an article, which is registered as the discussion paper and is submitted for possible publication to the refereed journal. Next, regarding the program evaluation of the main line railroad, I developed a new statistical model that extends the classical model for the treatment effect. For this model, I constructed a Bayesian estimation method, which is checked by numerical examples. I also applied the model and the method to the empirical analysis of the high-speed railway line in Kyushu.