A Bayesian approach to the program evaluation of infrastructures

基础设施项目评估的贝叶斯方法

• 批准号: 21830115
• 负责人: MIYAWAKI Koji
• 金额: $ 1.69万
• 依托单位: National Institute for Environmental Studies
• 依托单位国家: 日本
• 项目类别: Grant-in-Aid for Research Activity Start-up
• 财政年份: 2009
• 资助国家: 日本
• 起止时间: 2009 至 2010
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/en/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-21830115/
• 关键词: 経済統計学

Regarding the estimation of the residential gas demand function under decreasing block rate pricing, I elaborated a Bayesian estimation method for the exact economic model. Obtained results are collected in an article, which is registered as the discussion paper and is submitted for possible publication to the refereed journal. Next, regarding the program evaluation of the main line railroad, I developed a new statistical model that extends the classical model for the treatment effect. For this model, I constructed a Bayesian estimation method, which is checked by numerical examples. I also applied the model and the method to the empirical analysis of the high-speed railway line in Kyushu.

对于递减分时电价下居民燃气需求函数的估计，阐述了精确经济模型的贝叶斯估计方法。所获得的结果被收集在一篇文章中，这篇文章被登记为讨论论文，并提交给被引用的期刊，以便可能发表。其次，针对正线铁路的方案评价，提出了一种新的统计模型，扩展了经典模型的处理效果。针对该模型，构造了贝叶斯估计方法，并通过数值算例进行了验证。并将该模型和方法应用于九州高铁线路的实证分析。

项目成果

A Bayesian estimation of the residential gas demand function with nonlinear indirect utility

非线性间接效用住宅燃气需求函数的贝叶斯估计

• 发表时间: 2009
• 作者: Hori M;Ohno Y;Shimizu S;Utada M;宮脇幸治・大森裕浩・日引聡
• 通讯作者: 宮脇幸治・大森裕浩・日引聡

Discrete/Continuous Choice Model of the Residential Gas Demand on the Nonconvex Budget Set

非凸预算集下居民燃气需求的离散/连续选择模型

• 发表时间: 2010
• 期刊: CIRJE Discussion Paper Series
• 作者: Miyawaki K.;Y.Omori;A.Hibik,i
• 通讯作者: A.Hibik,i

A Bayesian estimation of the residential gas demand on the nonconvex budget set

非凸预算集上住宅天然气需求的贝叶斯估计

• 发表时间: 2010
• 作者: Berliant;M.;M.Fujita;大宮朋子山崎喜比古;島西智輝;宮脇幸治・大森裕浩・日引聡
• 通讯作者: 宮脇幸治・大森裕浩・日引聡