Identifying tipping points and safe operating spaces in sustainable fisheries management under future climate change

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Research achievements have been accomplished in both parts of the project.First, the analysis of tipping points in 40+ fish stocks has revealed how sensitive the dynamics associated with the processes of recruitment, growth, maturation, and natural and fishing mortality in these stocks are to variations in life-history parameters. Sensitivities have been quantified in terms of responses of ecological stock characteristics. On this basis, climate-impact scenarios have been examined through which rising temperatures affect life-history parameters. In this way, particularly vulnerable stocks have been identified, and the causes of their vulnerability have been understood.Second, the analysis of the safe operating space for the Northeast Arctic cod fishery has revealed how sensitive this stock’s life-history dynamics involving recruitment, growth, maturation, and natural and fishing mortality are to variations in temperature. Sensitivities have been quantified in terms of responses of ecological and socio-economic stock characteristics. On this basis, a two-dimensional continuum of management strategies has been evaluated by varying the regulated total allowable catch and minimum-size limit, in conjunction with a continuum of future climate trends. In this way, an expected future expansion of the safe operating space for this fishery has been identified, and the causes of this expansion have been understood.