Prediction of seasonal climate-induced variations in yields: potential and limitations

预测季节性气候引起的产量变化：潜力和局限性

• 批准号: 23880030
• 负责人: TOSHICHIKA Iizumi
• 金额: $ 2.08万
• 依托单位: National Institute for Agro-Environmental Sciences
• 依托单位国家: 日本
• 项目类别: Grant-in-Aid for Research Activity Start-up
• 财政年份: 2011
• 资助国家: 日本
• 起止时间: 2011 至 2012
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/en/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-23880030/
• 关键词: 地球環境・温暖化影響; 農業気象・微気象; 作況予測; 季節予報; 食料生産; 予測可能性; 全休評価; 作物統計収量; NPP; NDVI; 日射量; 飽差; 収量変動予測

This study assessed the reliability of the first global cropping prediction. Significant climate.crop relationships were found between the percentage changes in yield relative to that in the previous year and conditions of temperature and soil moisture level averaged over the 3-month period, commencing 3 months before harvesting and ending at harvesting. Using the derived statistical relationships and seasonal climatic forecasts, it is revealed that skillful within-season predictions of crop failures of wheat and rice are possible over approximately 20% of the global harvested area.

这项研究评估了第一次全球作物预测的可靠性。在相对于前一年产量的百分比变化与从收获前3个月开始到收获时结束的3个月期间的平均温度和土壤湿度水平之间发现了显著的气候与作物关系。使用导出的统计关系和季节性气候预测，它表明，熟练的小麦和水稻作物歉收的季节内预测是可能超过全球收获面积的约20%。

项目成果

Prediction of seasonal climate-induced variations in global food production

• DOI: 10.1038/nclimate1945
• 发表时间: 2013-10-01
• 期刊: NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE
• 影响因子: 30.7
• 作者: Iizumi, Toshichika;Sakuma, Hirofumi;Yamagata, Toshio
• 通讯作者: Yamagata, Toshio

Climate downscaling as a source of uncertainty in projecting local climate change impacts

气候降尺度是预测当地气候变化影响的不确定性来源

• 发表时间: 2012
• 期刊: Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan
• 影响因子: 3.1
• 作者: Iizumi;T.;F. Uno;and M. Nishimori
• 通讯作者: and M. Nishimori

Forecasting global crop failure to prepare climate-induced food insecurity

预测全球农作物歉收，以应对气候引起的粮食不安全

• 发表时间: 2012
• 作者: K. Shiono;M. Ando;M. Nakamura;Y.Matsuo;N. Yasuno;H. Takahashi;S.Nishiuchi;M. Fujimoto;H. Takanashi;K.Ranathunge;R. Franke;N. Shitan;N. K.Nishizawa;I. Takamure;N. Tsutsumi;L.Schreiber;K. Yazaki;M. Nakazono;K. Kato;Toshichika Iizumi
• 通讯作者: Toshichika Iizumi

Forecasting global crop failures to prepare climate-induced food insecurity

预测全球农作物歉收，以应对气候引起的粮食不安全

• 发表时间: 2012
• 作者: Iizumi;T.;H. Sakuma;M. Yokozawa;J.-J. Luo;A. J. Challinor;and T. Yamagata
• 通讯作者: and T. Yamagata

広域作物モデルでの利用に向けた季節予報の翻訳

用于大面积作物模型的季节性预测的翻译

• 发表时间: 2012
• 作者: 下田宜司;佐藤修正;林 誠;飯泉仁之直・佐久間弘文・ミカエルAセメノフ
• 通讯作者: 飯泉仁之直・佐久間弘文・ミカエルAセメノフ