Prediction of seasonal climate-induced variations in yields: potential and limitations

本研究评估了首次全球作物种植预测的可靠性。显著的气候。从收获前3个月开始到收获时结束的3个月期间的平均温度和土壤湿度水平与产量相对于前一年的百分比变化之间存在作物关系。利用导出的统计关系和季节气候预测，可以对全球约20%的收获面积的小麦和水稻的作物歉收进行熟练的季内预测。

This study assessed the reliability of the first global cropping prediction. Significant climate.crop relationships were found between the percentage changes in yield relative to that in the previous year and conditions of temperature and soil moisture level averaged over the 3-month period, commencing 3 months before harvesting and ending at harvesting. Using the derived statistical relationships and seasonal climatic forecasts, it is revealed that skillful within-season predictions of crop failures of wheat and rice are possible over approximately 20% of the global harvested area.