Evaluation of Port Improvement Based on Estimation of Container Transport Network Change Considering Global Alliances

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Transition and current situation of container transport market is summarized and influences of change of the market on trade structure are estimated through the following three analyses.1.Competitive situation among Asian major ports is identified by analyzing pattern of calling ports of post-panamax size container ship. As the result of comparison of operation cost between post-panamax size container ship and larger container ship (mega-ship), it is become clear that mega-ship will be reasonable for some global alliance groups.2.International transport cost of each commodity classified by SITC 5 digit code in trade statistics is identified. Impact of containerization and spread of reefer container on the trans-pacific trade is analyzed and it is estimated that contribution ratio of those technological innovations on trade stimulation of some agricultural products is more than 40 percent.3.A multi-regional computable general equilibrium model including active behavior of ocean shipping carrier is formulated and applied to estimation of trade amount among four major economic regions, that are Japan, USA, EU and Asia. The model estimates that 10 percent improvement of productivity on ocean carrier causes 0.4 percent trade amount increase.Above analyses confirmed that technological innovation and structure change of maritime transport have a significant influence on trade. Those result suggest port improvement and more efficient operation at port in order to respond to further change of container transport market.