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Evaluation of Port Improvement Based on Estimation of Container Transport Network Change Considering Global Alliances

基于考虑全球联盟的集装箱运输网络变化估计的港口改进评估

基本信息

批准号：
14350274
负责人：
INAMURA Hajime
金额：
$ 3.97万
依托单位：
Tohoku University
依托单位国家：
日本
项目类别：
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)
财政年份：
2002
资助国家：
日本
起止时间：
2002 至 2004
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/en/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-14350274/
关键词：
Port Improvement Maritime Transport Market Trade Enlargement of Container Vessel Containerization Reefer Container Global Alliance Multi-Regional Computable General Equilibrium Model 国際海上コンテナ外航船社の行動輸送ネットワーク港湾

项目摘要

Transition and current situation of container transport market is summarized and influences of change of the market on trade structure are estimated through the following three analyses.1.Competitive situation among Asian major ports is identified by analyzing pattern of calling ports of post-panamax size container ship. As the result of comparison of operation cost between post-panamax size container ship and larger container ship (mega-ship), it is become clear that mega-ship will be reasonable for some global alliance groups.2.International transport cost of each commodity classified by SITC 5 digit code in trade statistics is identified. Impact of containerization and spread of reefer container on the trans-pacific trade is analyzed and it is estimated that contribution ratio of those technological innovations on trade stimulation of some agricultural products is more than 40 percent.3.A multi-regional computable general equilibrium model including active behavior of ocean shipping carrier is formulated and applied to estimation of trade amount among four major economic regions, that are Japan, USA, EU and Asia. The model estimates that 10 percent improvement of productivity on ocean carrier causes 0.4 percent trade amount increase.Above analyses confirmed that technological innovation and structure change of maritime transport have a significant influence on trade. Those result suggest port improvement and more efficient operation at port in order to respond to further change of container transport market.

通过以下三个方面的分析，总结了集装箱运输市场的转型和现状，并估计了市场变化对贸易结构的影响。通过对超巴拿马型集装箱船舶停靠港格局的分析，确定了亚洲主要港口的竞争态势。通过对超巴拿马型集装箱船和大型集装箱船（巨型集装箱船）运营成本的比较，可以看出大型集装箱船对于一些全球联盟集团来说是合理的。确定贸易统计中按SITC 5位代码分类的每一种商品的国际运输成本。分析了集装箱化和冷藏集装箱的普及对跨太平洋贸易的影响，估计这些技术创新对某些农产品贸易刺激的贡献率超过40%。建立了包含海运承运人主动行为的多区域可计算一般均衡模型，并将其应用于日本、美国、欧盟和亚洲四大经济区之间的贸易额估算。该模型估计，远洋运输效率每提高10%，贸易量就会增加0.4%。以上分析证实了海上运输的技术创新和结构变化对贸易的显著影响。研究结果表明，为了应对集装箱运输市场的进一步变化，港口应进行改进，提高港口运营效率。