Modeling on Household's Behavior of Consumption and Waste Emission, and Optimization of Waste Treatment and Recycling Systems

本报告采用建模和仿真的方法进行了三类研究，以设计、评估和规划废物处理和回收系统，以建立物质循环型社会。研究结果总结如下：1)家庭消费行为产生的废物产生量和废物排放预测Becker在消费者行为理论的基础上，建立了消费者对商品和服务的选择模型，以及家庭中物质和能源的投入和产出平衡模型。此外，还对未来的经济增长情况、国内人口、每户平均人口、户数以及未来的环境负荷进行了预测。因此，明确了每个家庭类别的增长特征，并预测家庭垃圾的数量将在2023年达到峰值后减少。2)优化…在国家层面上更多的生活垃圾处理和回收系统。在这一阶段，我们试图从成本最小的角度优化家庭排放的生活垃圾的废物处理和回收系统。建立了多种废物处理和回收过程的模型，并考虑了代表这些过程及其相互联系的上层结构。此外，通过队列分析的方法，明确了在不断选择优化工艺的情况下，废物处理和回收系统的未来趋势。因此，选择废弃物气化熔融工艺与快速堆肥工艺相结合作为最优系统。3)基于情景的生活有机垃圾资源化处理流程体系评价。最后，我们对某政府真实规模的生活有机垃圾资源化处理与资源化体系进行了评价。根据现有的垃圾处理系统，建立了各工序的模型，增加了甲烷发酵装置模型、厨余垃圾电动分解机模型和园林堆肥装置模型。利用GIS计算了汽车收集生活垃圾的行驶距离。我们设置了8种废弃物管理场景，并计算了二氧化碳、能耗、总成本等评价指标的值。阐明了生活垃圾分类排放的贡献和甲烷发酵工艺的有效性。少

In this report, three kinds of studies are carried out by using modeling and simulation approach in order to design, evaluate and project the waste treatment and recycling system toward establishment of the material cycling society.The results are summarized in below:1)Projection of waste generation derived from the household's behavior of consumption and waste emissionBased on the theory of consumer's behavior, by Becker, the consumer's choice model of goods and services was developed, and also the input and output balance model of material and energy in the household was developed. Moreover, future scenarios of the economic growth, the population in the country, the averaged population in a household, the number of household were made and the amount of environmental loads in future was projected. As a result, the characteristics of the growth by each household category was clarified and it was projected that the amount of household waste will decrease after the peek in 2023.2)Optimiz … More ation of the domestic waste treatment and recycling system on the country levelIn this stage, we tried to optimize the waste treatment and recycling system of the domestic waste which is emitted from households, from viewpoint of cost minimum. Many kinds of waste treatment and recycling processes were modeled, and the super structure which represents the processes and their connections was considered. Moreover, by using the method of the cohort analysis, the future trend of the waste treatment and recycling system in the case that the optimized process will be selected continuously was clarified. As a result, the combination of waste gasification and melting process and fast composting process was selected as an optimal system.3)Scenario base evaluation of waste management process system for recycling the household organic wasteAt the final stage, we evaluated the treatment and recycling system of a real scale in a certain government, specially focusing on recycling the household organic waste. According to the current waste treatment systems, we made a model of the each process, and added the model of methane fermentation facility and the models of the electric decomposition machine of kitchen garbage and the apparatus for the garden composting. Moreover, traveling distance for collection of household waste by car was calculated by using GIS. We set 8 kinds of waste management scenarios, and calculated the value of the evaluation indexes, such as carbon dioxide, energy consumption, total cost, and so on. As a result, the contribution of the separated emission of the household waste and the effectiveness of the methane fermentation process were clarified. Less