Modeling on Household's Behavior of Consumption and Waste Emission, and Optimization of Waste Treatment and Recycling Systems

本报告通过建模与仿真的方法，对垃圾处理与回收系统进行了设计、评估和规划，以建立物质循环型社会。结果总结如下：1）家庭消费行为和废弃物排放导致的废弃物产生量预测根据Becker的消费者行为理论，建立了消费者对商品和服务的选择模型，建立了家庭物质和能量的投入产出平衡模型。此外，对未来的经济增长、人口、家庭平均人口、家庭数量等进行了预测，并对未来的环境负荷进行了预测。因此，明确了每个家庭类别的增长特征，预计2023年达到峰值后，家庭垃圾量将减少。2）Optimiz ...更多信息 国家层面的生活垃圾处理和回收系统在这一阶段，我们试图从成本最小化的角度优化家庭排放的生活垃圾的处理和回收系统。建立了多种废物处理和回收过程的模型，并考虑了代表这些过程及其连接的超结构。同时，通过队列分析的方法，阐明了在不断选择最优工艺的情况下，垃圾处理与回收系统的未来发展趋势。3）基于情景的生活有机废弃物资源化处理工艺系统评价最后，对某政府真实的规模的生活有机废弃物处理与资源化系统进行了评价，重点对生活有机废弃物的资源化处理进行了评价。根据现有的垃圾处理系统，建立了各工艺流程的模型，增加了沼气发酵装置模型、厨余垃圾电动分解机模型和园林堆肥装置模型。利用GIS计算了垃圾收集车的行驶距离。设定8种垃圾管理情景，计算二氧化碳、能耗、总成本等评价指标的值，明确生活垃圾分类排放的贡献和沼气发酵工艺的有效性。少

In this report, three kinds of studies are carried out by using modeling and simulation approach in order to design, evaluate and project the waste treatment and recycling system toward establishment of the material cycling society.The results are summarized in below:1)Projection of waste generation derived from the household's behavior of consumption and waste emissionBased on the theory of consumer's behavior, by Becker, the consumer's choice model of goods and services was developed, and also the input and output balance model of material and energy in the household was developed. Moreover, future scenarios of the economic growth, the population in the country, the averaged population in a household, the number of household were made and the amount of environmental loads in future was projected. As a result, the characteristics of the growth by each household category was clarified and it was projected that the amount of household waste will decrease after the peek in 2023.2)Optimiz … More ation of the domestic waste treatment and recycling system on the country levelIn this stage, we tried to optimize the waste treatment and recycling system of the domestic waste which is emitted from households, from viewpoint of cost minimum. Many kinds of waste treatment and recycling processes were modeled, and the super structure which represents the processes and their connections was considered. Moreover, by using the method of the cohort analysis, the future trend of the waste treatment and recycling system in the case that the optimized process will be selected continuously was clarified. As a result, the combination of waste gasification and melting process and fast composting process was selected as an optimal system.3)Scenario base evaluation of waste management process system for recycling the household organic wasteAt the final stage, we evaluated the treatment and recycling system of a real scale in a certain government, specially focusing on recycling the household organic waste. According to the current waste treatment systems, we made a model of the each process, and added the model of methane fermentation facility and the models of the electric decomposition machine of kitchen garbage and the apparatus for the garden composting. Moreover, traveling distance for collection of household waste by car was calculated by using GIS. We set 8 kinds of waste management scenarios, and calculated the value of the evaluation indexes, such as carbon dioxide, energy consumption, total cost, and so on. As a result, the contribution of the separated emission of the household waste and the effectiveness of the methane fermentation process were clarified. Less