Modeling on Household's Behavior of Consumption and Waste Emission, and Optimization of Waste Treatment and Recycling Systems

本文采用建模和模拟相结合的方法，对建立物质循环社会的废物处理和回收系统进行了设计、评价和规划。研究结果总结如下：1)基于家庭消费行为和废物排放的废物产生预测基于消费者行为理论，Becker建立了消费者对商品和服务的选择模型，并建立了家庭物质和能量的投入产出平衡模型。此外，还对未来经济增长、国家人口、家庭平均人口、家庭数量和未来环境负荷量进行了预测。结果，明确了每个家庭类别的增长特征，并预测家庭垃圾数量在2023.2)最优化…之后将会减少在现阶段，我们从成本最小化的角度出发，对生活垃圾的处理和回收系统进行了优化。对多种垃圾处理和回收过程进行了建模，考虑了代表这些过程及其相互关系的超结构。并运用队列分析的方法，明确了在不断选择优化工艺的情况下，垃圾处理回收系统的未来发展趋势。3)基于情景的生活有机垃圾回收管理流程系统评价在最后阶段，我们对某政府的实际规模的处理回收系统进行了评估，特别是针对生活有机垃圾的回收利用。根据现有的垃圾处理系统，对各个处理过程进行了建模，增加了沼气发酵装置模型、厨余垃圾电动分解机模型和花园堆肥装置模型。在此基础上，利用地理信息系统计算了汽车收集生活垃圾的行驶距离。设置了8种垃圾管理情景，计算了二氧化碳、能耗、总成本等评价指标的取值。从而明确了生活垃圾分类排放的贡献和沼气发酵过程的有效性。较少

In this report, three kinds of studies are carried out by using modeling and simulation approach in order to design, evaluate and project the waste treatment and recycling system toward establishment of the material cycling society.The results are summarized in below:1)Projection of waste generation derived from the household's behavior of consumption and waste emissionBased on the theory of consumer's behavior, by Becker, the consumer's choice model of goods and services was developed, and also the input and output balance model of material and energy in the household was developed. Moreover, future scenarios of the economic growth, the population in the country, the averaged population in a household, the number of household were made and the amount of environmental loads in future was projected. As a result, the characteristics of the growth by each household category was clarified and it was projected that the amount of household waste will decrease after the peek in 2023.2)Optimiz … More ation of the domestic waste treatment and recycling system on the country levelIn this stage, we tried to optimize the waste treatment and recycling system of the domestic waste which is emitted from households, from viewpoint of cost minimum. Many kinds of waste treatment and recycling processes were modeled, and the super structure which represents the processes and their connections was considered. Moreover, by using the method of the cohort analysis, the future trend of the waste treatment and recycling system in the case that the optimized process will be selected continuously was clarified. As a result, the combination of waste gasification and melting process and fast composting process was selected as an optimal system.3)Scenario base evaluation of waste management process system for recycling the household organic wasteAt the final stage, we evaluated the treatment and recycling system of a real scale in a certain government, specially focusing on recycling the household organic waste. According to the current waste treatment systems, we made a model of the each process, and added the model of methane fermentation facility and the models of the electric decomposition machine of kitchen garbage and the apparatus for the garden composting. Moreover, traveling distance for collection of household waste by car was calculated by using GIS. We set 8 kinds of waste management scenarios, and calculated the value of the evaluation indexes, such as carbon dioxide, energy consumption, total cost, and so on. As a result, the contribution of the separated emission of the household waste and the effectiveness of the methane fermentation process were clarified. Less