Research on soft system for warning- evacuation for sediment-related disaster

泥石流灾害预警疏散软系统研究

• 批准号: 12556023
• 负责人: OGAWA Shigeru
• 金额: $ 7.87万
• 依托单位: Kyushu University
• 依托单位国家: 日本
• 项目类别: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)
• 财政年份: 2000
• 资助国家: 日本
• 起止时间: 2000 至 2002
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/en/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-12556023/
• 关键词: Weather information system for sediment-related disaster; Prediction system for occurrence of sediment-related disaster; A real-time display; Interactive communication system; Intelligent manufacturing system; Internet practical use; Warning and eva

This research subject is building the practical warning and evacuation system of an sediment related disaster. Research was advanced as the subsystem about (1) weather information system for sediment-related disaster, (2)warning-evacuation information based on weather conditions, (3)prediction system for occurrence of sediment-related disaster, and (4) control program for warning and evacuation systemThe research result of each item is as follows.(1) The Internet system that displays a heavy rain on real time as weather information was developed, and the utilization under the actual condition was investigated. Moreover, investigation examination was carried out about the case of the weather information system in an area.(2) About warning-evacuation information based on weather conditions, the meso scale weather conditions of sediment related disaster aiming at the Internet information system were clarified, and decision method of the critical rainfall on the basis of short-time rain prediction was clarified.(3) In the prediction system for occurrence of sediment-related disaster, the information acquisition method for database construction was examined about the prediction of surface collapse, and case in-vestigation was conducted.Moreover, the forecasting model of the calamity dangerous range by debris soil was developed. Furthermore, the model for the new prediction system that combined the broader-based collapse forecasting model (statistics model) and collapse forecasting model (physical model) on the small zone was developed, and it verified by case application.(4) As a control program for warning and evacuation system, rainfall observation information collecting / transfer system of interactive communication for judging into this research group was created, and case verification, was performed. Moreover, the interactive communication information system was developed.

本研究课题是建立实用的泥沙灾害预警与疏散系统。研究内容包括：(1)泥沙灾害气象信息系统；(2)基于气象条件的预警疏散信息；(3)泥沙灾害发生预报系统；(4)预警疏散系统控制程序。在基于天气条件的预警疏散信息方面，明确了针对互联网信息系统的泥沙灾害中尺度天气条件，提出了基于短时降雨预报的临界雨量决策方法。(3)在泥沙灾害发生预报系统中，研究了地面塌陷预报建库的信息获取方法，并进行了实例研究，建立了泥沙灾害危险范围预报模型。在此基础上，建立了基于广义崩塌预报模型(统计模型)和崩塌预报模型(物理模型)相结合的小区域崩塌预报新系统模型，并进行了实例应用验证。(4)作为预警疏散系统的控制程序，建立了面向本课题组的交互通讯判定雨量观测信息采集/传输系统，并进行了实例验证。此外，还开发了交互式通信信息系统。

项目成果

久保田哲也, 小川 滋: "インターネット警戒避難情報を対象とした土砂災害発生メソスケール気象条件予測"平成14年砂防学会研究発表会概要集. 平成14年. 2-3 (2002)

Tetsuya Kubota、Shigeru Okawa：“基于互联网警报和疏散信息的泥沙灾害发生的中尺度气象条件的预测”2002 年侵蚀控制协会研究报告摘要。2-3 (2002)。

小川 滋, 広瀬茂樹, 北岡直樹: "土砂災害警戒避難システムのソフト化について"平成13年度砂防学会研究発表会概要集. 平成13年度. 180-181 (2001)

Shigeru Okawa、Shigeki Hirose、Naoki Kitaoka：“滑坡预警和疏散系统软件化”2001 年侵蚀控制学会研究会议摘要。180-181 (2001)。

平松晋也,亀田光彦: "土質強度の時間変化を考慮した簡易手法による流域の危険度評価"平成12年度砂防学会研究発表会概要集. 平成12年度. 214-215 (2000)

Shinya Hiramatsu、Mitsuhiko Kameda：“使用考虑土壤强度时间变化的简单方法进行流域风险评估”2000 年 Sabo 协会研究报告摘要集。214-215 (2000)。

牛山素行: "都道府県による雨量観測"水文・水資源学会誌,Vol.14, pp.317-322. Vol.14 No.4. 317-322 (2001)

Motoyuki Ushiyama：“各县的降雨观测”，日本水文水资源学会杂志，第 14 卷，第 14 卷第 317-322 页，第 317-322 期（2001 年）。

牛山素行: "インターネットを活用したリアルタイム豪雨表示システムの開発"水文・水資源学会誌. 受理済(掲載決定). (2002)

Motoyuki Ushiyama：“利用互联网开发实时暴雨显示系统”，日本水文水资源学会杂志接受出版（2002 年）。