Research on soft system for warning- evacuation for sediment-related disaster

本研究课题是建立一个实用的泥沙灾害预警和疏散系统。作为子系统，对泥沙灾害气象信息系统、气象条件下的预警疏散信息系统、泥沙灾害发生预报系统、预警疏散控制程序系统进行了研究。(1)开发了一个将一场暴雨作为天气信息进行真实的实时显示的Internet系统，并对其在实际条件下的使用进行了研究。并对某地区的气象信息系统进行了案例调研。(2)在基于气象条件的预警疏散信息方面，针对互联网信息系统，阐明了泥沙灾害的中尺度气象条件，并阐明了基于短时降水预报的临界雨量的决策方法。(3)在泥沙灾害发生预测系统中，探讨了地面塌陷预测数据库建设的信息获取方法，并进行了实例调查，建立了泥石流灾害危险范围预测模型。在此基础上，建立了基于广义塌陷预测模型（统计模型）和基于小区域塌陷预测模型（物理模型）相结合的塌陷预测模型，并通过实例进行了验证。(4)作为警报和疏散系统的控制程序，创建了用于判断本研究组的交互式通信的降雨观测信息收集/传输系统，并进行了案例验证。此外，还开发了交互式通信信息系统。

This research subject is building the practical warning and evacuation system of an sediment related disaster. Research was advanced as the subsystem about (1) weather information system for sediment-related disaster, (2)warning-evacuation information based on weather conditions, (3)prediction system for occurrence of sediment-related disaster, and (4) control program for warning and evacuation systemThe research result of each item is as follows.(1) The Internet system that displays a heavy rain on real time as weather information was developed, and the utilization under the actual condition was investigated. Moreover, investigation examination was carried out about the case of the weather information system in an area.(2) About warning-evacuation information based on weather conditions, the meso scale weather conditions of sediment related disaster aiming at the Internet information system were clarified, and decision method of the critical rainfall on the basis of short-time rain prediction was clarified.(3) In the prediction system for occurrence of sediment-related disaster, the information acquisition method for database construction was examined about the prediction of surface collapse, and case in-vestigation was conducted.Moreover, the forecasting model of the calamity dangerous range by debris soil was developed. Furthermore, the model for the new prediction system that combined the broader-based collapse forecasting model (statistics model) and collapse forecasting model (physical model) on the small zone was developed, and it verified by case application.(4) As a control program for warning and evacuation system, rainfall observation information collecting / transfer system of interactive communication for judging into this research group was created, and case verification, was performed. Moreover, the interactive communication information system was developed.