A CELLULAR AUTOMATA BASED MODEL OF LONG-TERM LAND USE DYNAMICS N URBAN AREAS

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In constructing any CA based models of land use dynamics, definition and estimation of land use transition potentials are essential but difficult parts of the work. Although 'transition potentials' can not be observed directly, in some precedent studies, for example White, Engelen & Uljee (1997) and Arai & Akiyama(2003), transition potential functions were estimated empirically so as to replicate land use dynamics in their study areas. However, we have not yet accumulated the findings about the transition potential functions. In this study, we estimated the function which explains the transition potential of land use at each cell through the statistical analysis of the detailed land use data observed in 1974, 1979, 1984, 1989 and 1994, in the Tokyo Metropolitan Region.We assumed the transition potential to residential use at a cell as a function of the distance from the nearest railway station to the cell, the number of cells used for commercial activities in the neighborhood of the cell, the number of residential cells in the neighborhood of the cell, the number of cells used for roads in the neighborhood of the cell and the number of cells used for parks in the neighborhood of the cell. Additionally the function can be approximated by the weighted sum of five non-linear functions of individual factors.We picked out several study areas in the suburbs of Tokyo.According to the results, the cells which were converted to residential use for five years' duration had significantly higher transition potentials.In conclusion, the model presented in this study will contribute to our understandings about the transition potential functions.