A CELLULAR AUTOMATA BASED MODEL OF LONG-TERM LAND USE DYNAMICS N URBAN AREAS

在构建任何基于CA的土地利用动态模型时，土地利用过渡潜力的定义和估计是必不可少的，但也是工作中困难的部分。虽然“过渡潜力”不能直接观察到，但在一些先前的研究中，例如White， Engelen & Uljee（1997）和Arai & Akiyama(2003)，过渡潜力函数是根据经验估计的，以便在他们的研究区域复制土地利用动态。然而，我们还没有积累关于过渡势函数的发现。本研究通过对1974年、1979年、1984年、1989年和1994年东京都市圈详细土地利用数据的统计分析，估计了解释每个小区土地利用过渡潜力的函数。我们假设一个小区向住宅用途的过渡电位是以下因素的函数：从最近的火车站到小区的距离、小区附近用于商业活动的小区数量、小区附近用于住宅的小区数量、小区附近用于道路的小区数量以及小区附近用于公园的小区数量。此外，该函数可以近似为五个非线性函数的加权和的个别因素。我们在东京郊区挑选了几个研究区域。结果表明，转换为住宅使用5年的电池具有明显更高的转换电位。综上所述，本文提出的模型将有助于我们对过渡势函数的理解。

In constructing any CA based models of land use dynamics, definition and estimation of land use transition potentials are essential but difficult parts of the work. Although 'transition potentials' can not be observed directly, in some precedent studies, for example White, Engelen & Uljee (1997) and Arai & Akiyama(2003), transition potential functions were estimated empirically so as to replicate land use dynamics in their study areas. However, we have not yet accumulated the findings about the transition potential functions. In this study, we estimated the function which explains the transition potential of land use at each cell through the statistical analysis of the detailed land use data observed in 1974, 1979, 1984, 1989 and 1994, in the Tokyo Metropolitan Region.We assumed the transition potential to residential use at a cell as a function of the distance from the nearest railway station to the cell, the number of cells used for commercial activities in the neighborhood of the cell, the number of residential cells in the neighborhood of the cell, the number of cells used for roads in the neighborhood of the cell and the number of cells used for parks in the neighborhood of the cell. Additionally the function can be approximated by the weighted sum of five non-linear functions of individual factors.We picked out several study areas in the suburbs of Tokyo.According to the results, the cells which were converted to residential use for five years' duration had significantly higher transition potentials.In conclusion, the model presented in this study will contribute to our understandings about the transition potential functions.