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Research on the analysis and its utilization of evaluating fixed-assets for housing by the mathematical model

住房固定资产评估数学模型分析及应用研究

基本信息

批准号：
14580494
负责人：
OSAKI Shunji
金额：
$ 2.24万
依托单位：
Nanzan University
依托单位国家：
日本
项目类别：
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
财政年份：
2002
资助国家：
日本
起止时间：
2002 至 2003
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/en/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-14580494/
关键词：
evaluation of a property tax by pricing land factors for pricing land estimation for pricing land quantification method I multiple regression analysis proportional hazard model maximum likelihood method empirical analysis 宅地評価固定資産路線価

项目摘要

We have developed a mathematical model of evaluating fixed-assets for housing and made a system based on the mathematical model. In particular, the mathematical model has been extended to the multiple regression analysis form the quantification method I which is used in the previous researches. In the quantification method I, we have to categorize quantitative measures for pricing land such as the distance to station to several classes, so that the. quantitative measures would be regarded as discrete values. By using the multiple regression analysis, we have been able to use the quantitative measures directly to evaluate fixed-assets for housing. Similar to the multiple regression. analysis, the evaluation method on the Cox regression analysis has been proposed, where the Cox regression analysis is performed in a proportional hazard model. The proposed method takes an advantage to estimate the range of land prices, which is the interval estimation of land price, because the land price is represented as a random Variable in the proportional hazard model.In numerical experiments, we have performed the multiple regression analysis and, the Cox regression analysis under the measures pricing land for housing which are collected in Higashi-Hiroshima City, and have compared two analyses quantitatively. To evaluate the goodness-of fit to the real land price for the multiple and Cox regression analyses, we use mean absolute errors, likelihood, AIC, BIC. As a result, the Cox regression analysis is superior to the multiple regression analysis in terms of pricing land for housing. In addition, the evaluation system has been developed on spreadsheet software, where we can estimate the prices of land with simple operations. In this system, the recent estimation methods are applied for making the fast estimation. Finally, we will submit the paper on this research to the journal of industrial and applied mathematics in Japan.

建立了住宅固定资产评估的数学模型，并在此基础上开发了住宅固定资产评估系统。特别地，将数学模型从以往研究中使用的量化方法I推广到多元回归分析中。在量化方法I中，我们必须将土地定价的量化指标（如到车站的距离）分为几类，以便确定土地价格。定量测量将被视为离散值。通过多元回归分析，我们可以直接使用定量的措施来评估住房固定资产。类似于多元回归。分析中，提出了考克斯回归分析的评价方法，其中考克斯回归分析在比例风险模型中进行。在比例风险模型中，地价被表示为随机变量，因此，该方法在地价区间估计中具有优势。在数值试验中，以东广岛市的住宅用地价格为例，进行了多元回归分析和考克斯回归分析。并对两种分析方法进行了定量比较。为了评价多元和考克斯回归分析对真实的地价的拟合优度，我们使用了平均绝对误差、似然、AIC、BIC。结果表明，考克斯回归分析在住宅用地定价方面优于多元回归分析，具有上级的优越性。此外，评估系统已开发的电子表格软件，我们可以估计的土地价格与简单的操作。在该系统中，最新的估计方法被应用于进行快速估计。最后，我们将把这项研究的论文提交给日本的工业与应用数学杂志。