A Study on the Industrial Organization of Telecommunications Industry based on the computer aided simulation model considering the substitution effect between telecommunications systems

考虑电信系统间替代效应的基于计算机辅助仿真模型的电信业产业组织研究

• 批准号: 16510116
• 负责人: TAKASHIMA Yuichi
• 金额: $ 0.45万
• 依托单位: Iwate Prefectural University
• 依托单位国家: 日本
• 项目类别: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• 财政年份: 2004
• 资助国家: 日本
• 起止时间: 2004 至 2005
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/en/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-16510116/
• 关键词: Industrial Organization; Natural Monopoly; DEA; Translog Cost Function; Dynamic DEA; Cellular Telephone Market; Telecommunications; Economies of Scale

This study aims to investigate the characteristics of the telecommunications industry as a whole from both sides of supply and demand analysis. For this purpose, we composed a simulation model of the this industry.As for the demand side analysis, we examined the demand model including substitution effects which was developed already with additional data. In this analysis, we tried to test the hypothesis, "The radio paging service suppress the demand for the cellular telephone service through the substitution effect between them." For this objective, we built the more general model which covers cellular telephone, the radio paging service, PHS, fixed access. As the result, we certainly admit the substitution between the 2^<nd> generation of cellular telephone and the radio paging, but as for the 1^<st>st generation of cellular telephone, we can not see the hint of substitution. Therefore, the reason why the cellular telephone market suppressed in early stage is not due to the substituti … More on effect. Rather, this phenomenon can be explained by the cost structure of cellular telephone service of 1^<st> generation itself, and the shift from radio paging to 2^<nd> generation cellular telephone might bring the explosive expansion of the whole cellular telephone market.This result is important from two points of view. The first, we can not neglect the supply side (tariff or price level) in order to explain and forecast the dynamics of telecommunications market as well as the demand side. The second, it is needed to build the simulation model including both side and analyze its sensitivity in order to add more confidence in estimation.As for the supply side (the cost structure), we use Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) besides of estimating the parametric cost function statistically. Though DEA is often used to measure the technical inefficiency of several companies, we can show this method can be applied to the cost analysis including the test of natural monopoly of a certain industry ("The measurement of natural monopoly in cellular telephone market using Data Envelopment Analysis"). However, the results by DEA are different from those by statistical estimation. In DEA literatures, it is often said that DEA does not have sufficient way of treating time series data, and this point might affect the above mentioned problem. In order to improve this situation, we developed a dynamic DEA methodology based on Fare and Grosskopf(1996) and Sengupta(1995).It can be said that these efforts make possible to build a basic framework of the I-O simulator for telecommunication industry which is the final objectives of this study. Less

本研究旨在从供给和需求两方面分析电信业的整体特征。为此，我们构建了该产业的模拟模型。在需求侧分析中，我们对已经开发的包含替代效应的需求模型进行了验证。在这项分析中，我们试图验证假设，“无线寻呼服务通过它们之间的替代效应抑制了对蜂窝电话服务的需求。“为了这个目标，我们建立了一个更通用的模型，包括蜂窝电话、无线寻呼服务、PHS、固定接入。因此，我们当然承认第二<nd>代蜂窝电话与无线寻呼之间的替代，但对于第一<st>代蜂窝电话，我们看不到替代的迹象。因此，早期手机市场被压制的原因并不在于手机的替代品， ...更多信息 生效。相反，这种现象可以用第一代蜂窝电话服务本身的成本结构来解释<st>，从无线寻呼到第二<nd>代蜂窝电话的转变可能会带来整个蜂窝电话市场的爆炸性扩张。第一，我们不能忽视供给方（资费或价格水平），以解释和预测电信市场的动态以及需求方。第二，建立包括供给和供给两方面的模拟模型，并分析模型的敏感性，以增加估计的可信度。对于供给方面（成本结构），除了对参数成本函数进行统计估计外，还采用了数据包络分析（DEA）方法。虽然DEA方法常被用来衡量多个公司的技术无效率，但我们可以证明该方法也可以应用于成本分析，包括对某个行业的自然垄断的检验（“使用数据包络分析的移动电话市场自然垄断的度量”）。然而，DEA的结果与统计估计的结果不同。在DEA的文献中，经常有人说DEA对时间序列数据的处理方法不充分，这一点可能会影响到上述问题。为了改善这一状况，我们在Fare and Grosskopf（1996）和Sengupta（1995）的基础上发展了一种动态DEA方法，可以说，这些努力使得建立电信业I-O模拟器的基本框架成为可能，这也是本研究的最终目标。少

项目成果

Measuring Natural Monopoly in Cellular Telephone Markets using Data Envelopment Analysis

使用数据包络分析衡量蜂窝电话市场的自然垄断

• 发表时间: 2005
• 期刊: International Telecommunications Society Africa-Asia-Australasia Regional Conference,28-30 August 2005,Proceedings
• 作者: Yuichi Takashima;Masaato Noguchi
• 通讯作者: Masaato Noguchi

The demand substitution in the early stage of the mobile communications - The radio paging and the cellular telephone service -

移动通信初期的需求替代——无线寻呼和蜂窝电话业务——

• 发表时间: 2004
• 期刊: International Telecommunications Society 15th Biennial Conference, Berlin, Proceedings
• 作者: Yuichi Takashima;Masato Noguchi;Yuichi Takashima;Yuichi Takashima
• 通讯作者: Yuichi Takashima

The demand Substitution in the early stage of the mobile communications -The radio paging and the cellular telephone service-

移动通信初期的需求替代-无线寻呼和蜂窝电话服务-

• 发表时间: 2004
• 期刊: International Telecommunications Society 15^<th> Biennial Conference, Berlin. (Proceedings)
• 作者: Yuichi Takashima;Masato Noguchi;Yuichi Takashima;Yuichi Takashima;Yuichi Takashima
• 通讯作者: Yuichi Takashima

DEAを用いた携帯電話事業の自然独占性の測定

利用DEA衡量手机业务自然垄断程度

• 发表时间: 2005
• 期刊: InfoCom Review 36号
• 作者: 野口正人;高嶋裕一
• 通讯作者: 高嶋裕一

The demand substitution in the early stage of the mobile communications-The radio paging and the cellular telephone service-

移动通信初期的需求替代——无线寻呼和蜂窝电话业务——

• 发表时间: 2004
• 期刊: International Telecommunications Society 15^<th> Biennial Conference,Berlin,Proceedings
• 作者: Yuichi Takashima;Masato Noguchi;Yuichi Takashima
• 通讯作者: Yuichi Takashima