International linkages between financial and real economy cycles

该项目将为不同国家开发商业周期的经验多元模型，并将研究它们如何通过国际金融市场联系起来。该项目的意义在于，模型将整合以前在单一国家背景下对金融-实体经济联系所做的工作，并将明确研究国际金融市场的不均衡（如外币估值过高）对单个经济体的影响。该项目将确定对这种冲击的适当国内货币政策反应，以及预测这种冲击的到来及其对个别经济体的影响的可能性。

This project will develop empirical multivariate models of business cycles for different countries, and will study how they are linked via international financial markets. The significance of the project is that the models will integrate previous work done on financial-real economy links in single country settings, and it will explicitly study the effects of disequilibrium in international financial markets (such as overvaluation of foreign currency) on individual economies. The project will determine the appropriate domestic monetary policy response to such shocks, and the potential for forecasting both the advent of such shocks and their impact on individual economies.