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Determination of potential tsunami-induced current velocity, bathymetric change, and vessel safe zone in Tokyo Bay

东京湾潜在海啸引起的海流速度、水深变化和船舶安全区的确定

基本信息

批准号：
17K12998
负责人：
グスマンアディティア
金额：
$ 1.5万
依托单位：
The University of Tokyo
依托单位国家：
日本
项目类别：
Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B)
财政年份：
2017
资助国家：
日本
起止时间：
2017-04-01 至 2018-03-31
项目状态：
已结题

项目摘要

The main objective of this research is to assess the hazard inside the Tokyo Bay induced from tsunamis generated by earthquakes from nearby subduction zones. The tsunami hazard assessment can be done by analyzing simulation results of tsunami propagation and sediment transportation from a set of earthquake scenarios.We randomly generated slip distributions on the plate interface of the Sagami Trough using the Karhunen‐Loeve (K‐L) expansion method. The geometry of the plate interface is based on the Japan Integrated Velocity Structure Model (JIVSM). The magnitudes of the generated the slip distributions are from Mw 7.7 to 8.2 with 0.1 magnitude unit spacing (six magnitudes). We generated 50 slip distributions for each magnitude for a total of 300 earthquake scenarios. For each scenario, we simulated the tsunami propagation and inundation in the Tokyo Bay using high-quality and high-resolution (1 arc-sec) bathymetry and topography dataset.We developed a numerical model that can simulate the thickness and grain size distribution of tsunami sand deposit. The numerical model was calibrated with high quality and reliable observations of tsunami inundation heights, deposit thickness and grain size distribution, topography and bathymetry data around Numanohama coast in Iwate prefecture, and a source model for the 2011 Tohoku earthquake. A model concept with three model layers of suspended sediment, deposit, and parent layers allows simulation of sediment grain size distribution and deposit thickness.

这项研究的主要目的是评估由附近俯冲带地震引发的海啸在东京湾内引发的危险。通过分析一组地震情景的海啸传播和泥沙运动模拟结果，可以进行海啸危险性评估。我们使用K-L展开法在萨伽米海槽的板块界面上随机生成滑移分布。板块界面的几何形状基于日本综合速度结构模型(JIVSM)。产生的滑动分布震级为7.7-8.2级，单位间距为0.1级(6级)。我们为总共300个地震场景生成了每个震级的50个滑动分布。利用高质量、高分辨率(1角秒)的水深和地形数据，模拟了海啸在东京湾的传播和淹没过程，建立了一个可以模拟海啸沙层厚度和粒度分布的数值模型。通过高质量和可靠的海啸淹没高度、沉积物厚度和粒度分布、岩手县沼泽海岸周围的地形和水深数据以及2011年东北地震的震源模型对数值模型进行了校准。由悬浮泥沙、沉积物和母层三个模型层组成的模型概念允许模拟沉积物的粒度分布和沉积物厚度。