Establishment of a kyucho forecast system and its application for detecting ecological influences

利用海洋再分析产品作为开放边界条件，ASCAT卫星风资料作为海面强迫条件的数值模式，成功地预报了久町事件。然后，将这些后预报计算作为久町预报模式的初始条件，并将预报的风速作为强迫条件。根据预报模式，在本戈海峡进行了巨潮观测，发现巨潮事件发生后，沿海生态系统和洋流都发生了快速转变。

We successfully hindcasted kyucho events using an numerical model with an ocean reanalysis product as the open boundary condition, and with ASCAT satellite wind data as the forcing condition at the sea surface. Thereafter, these hindcasting computations are used as the initial condition for the kyucho forecast model along with the forecasted winds as the forcing condition. According to the forecast model, the kyucho observations were conducted in the Bungo Channel, and finding is that the rapid transition of both coastal ecosystem and ocean currents occurred after the kyucho events.