Western Australia severe weather prediction: optimising forecasts using new data sources and improved high-resolution models

从西澳的面积和地理位置来看，它不同寻常地高度暴露在严酷的热带和超热带天气中。该项目将开发改进的数据同化和模拟技术，利用新出现的高分辨率卫星和其他数据，提高西澳地区天气预报的及时性、准确性和可靠性。成果包括：改进了预报影响西澳(从而影响澳大利亚)的恶劣天气的预报系统，以及提供有价值的概率信息的综合预报系统，如预报的可信度限度。更早发布的恶劣天气预报将允许采取适当的规划和管理措施，从而降低它们目前高昂的社会和经济成本。

WA suffers unusually high exposure to severe tropical and extra-tropical weather, from its size and geographical location. This project will develop enhanced data assimilation and modelling techniques, using emerging high-resolution satellite and other data to improve the timeliness, accuracy and reliability of weather forecasts for WA. Outcomes include: improved forecast systems for predicting severe weather affecting WA (and consequently Australia), and ensemble forecast systems that provide valuable probabilistic information, such as confidence limits in the forecasts. Better forecasts issued earlier for severe weather events will allow appropriate planning and management measures, thereby reducing their present high social and economic cost.