A Study on the Prediction of Anomalous Southward Intrusion of the Oyashio

研究了亲潮向南异常入侵和北太平洋亚北极环流的异常机制，特别是对其发生的可能预测方法。第一年，研究了异常南向入侵产生的基本动力学。已有研究表明，亲潮和亚北极环流的南侵是由于阿留申低气压向南发展引起的风应力变化所致(Sekine，1990)。冬季阿留申低气压向南发展、黑潮延伸带脱离暖水的缺乏以及津轻暖流向东发展，证明了亲潮南侵和亚北极环流的预测是可能的。由此推断，南侵形成的更宽的冷海表面温度（SST）对全球大气环流具有显着影响。第二年研究了异常南侵与全球大气环流变化之间的关系。由于阿留申低气压向南发展是太平洋/北美（PNA）格局的一个过程，亲潮和亚北极环流的异常南侵被证明是一种全球现象，与赤道地区的 ENSO 现象存在遥相关（Sekine 和 Suzuki，1991）。由于PNA模式有发生在厄瓜多尔近海暖水出现一年后的趋势，因此可以通过ENSO现象的演变来预测异常向南入侵。由于阿留申低气压的南移是由南侵引起的冷海温独立形成的，南侵对阿留申低气压南移的正反馈作用。然而，Sekine 和 Nakakawa (1992) 以及 Sekine 等人。 （1992）研究表明，鄂霍次克海冬季海冰面积较小，异常南侵抑制了冬季大气降温。由于大气和海洋的耦合全球变化是重要事件，因此忽略了一些未来的问题，以便对其整个系统得出明确的结论。较少的

Mechanisms of the anomalous southward intrusion of the Oyashio and the subarctic circulations in the North Pacific have been studied with special reference to the possible prediction method for their occurrence. In the first year, the basic dynamics of the generation of the anomalous southward intrusion was studied. It has been demonstrated that the southward intrusions of the Oyashio and the subarctic circulation are due to the wind stress change by the southward development of the Aleutian Low (Sekine, 1990). The prediction of the southward intrusion of the Oyashio and subarctic circulation is show to be possible by the southward development of the Aleutian Low in winter and by the lack of the warm water detached from the Kuroshio Extension and eastward development of the Tsugaru Warm Current.It is inferred that the wider cold sea surface temperature (SST) formed by the southward intrusion has a remarkable influences on the global atmospheric circulation. The relationship between the … More anomalous southward intrusion and the global change in atmospheric circulation was studied in the second year. As the southward development of the Aleutian Low is one process of the Pacific/North American (PNA) pattern, the anomalous southward intrusion of the Oyashio and subarctic circulation is shown to be a global phenomena that has a teleconnection with the ENSO phenomenon in equatorial area (Sekine and Suzuki, 1991). Since the PNA pattern has a tendency to occur in one year later than the onset of the warm water appearance off Ecuador, the prediction of the anomalous southward intrusion is possible by the evolution of the ENSO phenomenon. Because the southward development of the Aleutian Lowis independently by formed by the cold SST due to the southward intrusion, the positive feedback of the southward intrusion to the the southward development of the Aleutian Low. However, Sekine and Nakagawa (1992) and Sekine et al. (1992) showed that the sea ice area in the Okhotsk Sea is relatively small in winter with the anomalous southward intrusion, which suppresses winter cooling of the atmosphere. As the coupled global changes in atmosphere and ocean are important events, some future problems are left out to draw a firm conclusion on their total systems. Less