Financial Situation and Reform of Japanese Public Pension System

日本人口老龄化速度非常快。事实上，这一过程的速度是如此之快，以至于目前的社会保障体系无法像现在这样持续下去。一个这样的问题，可能是最值得注意的是，在20世纪70年代和80年代初为老年人设计的公共养老金计划将在不久的将来破产。这项研究的目的是考察日本公共养老金计划的财务状况和改革。我们的研究建立在两个支柱上：一是对公共养老金计划的财务平衡进行实证估计；二是对私人养老金计划取代公共养老金计划的前景进行理论调查。日本针对个体户的公共养老金计划已经不再自给自足。覆盖大多数员工的最大计划如果保持不变，即使在几年内也将面临严重的财务问题。我们有Projec…进一步研究雇员退休金计划未来的财政问题；如果制度要维持下去，保险率将不得不提高到40%或更高。至于研究的理论方面，我们主要致力于证明缩减公共养老金计划的可能性。在这种情况下，私人保险将不得不承担更重要的作用，作为一种支持老年人收入的社会手段。然而，使这一转型变得困难的一个问题是，私人养老金市场可能会因为市场的不完善而失败。私人养老金市场将由长寿的人和不会长寿的人组成。如果保险公司不能区分这两类客户，它就不能为那些可能活不长的人提供更好的保险(如果它这样做了，它可能会吸收那些活得太长的人，并会招致损失)。在这种情况下，私人养老金市场将会失灵。我们已经研究了这种失败的可能性，并展示了它何时发生。较少

Japanese population has been aging very rapidly. In fact, the speed of this process is so phenomenal that the present social security system cannot be sustained as it is now. One such, probably most noteworthy, problem is that public pension scheme which has been designed for the old in the 1970s and the early 1980s will go bankcrapt in a very near future.The purpose of this research has been to examine the financial status and reform of Japanese public pension plans. Our research has been constructed from two pillars: the first is an empirical estimation of financial balance of pubil pension plans; and the second is a theoretical investigation of the prospect of substituting pubic pension plans with private ones.The results of the empirical part are really gloomy. Japanese public pension plan for the self-employed has already been not self-supporting. The largest plan covering most employees will soon face a serious financial problems in even a few years if left intact. We have projec … More ted the future financial aspects of the employees' pension plan; if the system were to be sustained for itself, the rate of insurance will have to be raised up to 40% or higher.As for the theoretical side of research, our major effort has been devoted to showing the possibility of downsizing the public pension plans. In such a situation private insurance will have to assume more important role as a social device for supporting the income of the elderly. However, a question which makes this transition difficult is private pension market may fail due to imperfectness of the market.Private pension market will comprise of those who will live long and those who will not. If the insurance company cannot discriminate the two types of its clients, it cannot offer a better policy to those who may not live long( if it does, it may absorb those who will live long too, and it will incur losses). In such a case private pension market will fail. We have studied the possibility of this failure and have shown when it occurs. Less