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渇水時貯水池操作における流量予測精度と意思決定精度との相互関係分析モデルの構築

旱期水库调度流量预测精度与决策精度相关分析模型构建

基本信息

批准号：
07750596
负责人：
堀智晴
金额：
$ 0.58万
依托单位：
Kyoto University
依托单位国家：
日本
项目类别：
Grant-in-Aid for Encouragement of Young Scientists (A)
财政年份：
1995
资助国家：
日本
起止时间：
1995 至无数据
项目状态：
已结题

项目摘要

本研究では,渇水時貯水池操作における意思決定基準の持つ曖昧性と貯水池流入量予測情報のもつ不確実性とが,意思決定過程に与える影響を分析するため,ファジィ意思決定手法を用いた渇水時貯水池操作モデルを開発した.本研究の具体的な成果は,以下の通りである.1.意思決定基準の持つ曖昧性を放流量決定過程に取り込むため,貯水池の目標放流量・目標貯水量をファジィ集合で表現した.また,貯水池流入量予測情報の持つ不確実性を予測情報の形態に応じて,確率論的に取り扱う場合とファジィ的取り扱いの必要な場合にわけ,前者の場合を「確率システムに対するファジィ意思決定問題」,後者の場合を「確率システムに対するフィジィ意思決定問題」として定式化した.2.1.で定式化した放流量決定問題を解くために,ファジィダイナミックプログラミング手法を応用したアルゴリスムを開発した.3.近年,貯水池への流入量の長期間予測に,ファジィ理論やニューラルネットワークを用いた手法が提案されつつあることを考慮し,流入量予測情報をファジィ集合で与えるモデルとして,ファジィ回帰モデルを用いた貯水池流入量予測手法を開発した.4.仮想貯水池系を対象として,種々の精度を持つダム流入量予測モデルならびに意思決定基準のもとで,放流量決定計算を行なった.ここでは,特に,解のもつ曖昧性を表す指標として,同一目的関数値を与える放流量(解)の幅に着目した解析を行なった結果,意思決定に用いる予測情報の精度と意思決定基準の曖昧性の間には,一定の均衡点があることがわかった.

In this study, the flow rate of pool operation is determined according to the amount of inflow into the pool, and the process and effect are analyzed in this study. in this study, the meaning of water pool operation is determined according to the amount of inflow of water pool. The specific results of this study are listed below. 1. The meaning determination basis is based on the random discharge determination process, and the flow rate of the pool is determined by the volume of water and the collection of water. The amount of inflow into the pool is affected by the situation, and the inflow of the pool is in accordance with the situation, and the inflow of the pool is in accordance with the situation, and the inflow of the pool is in accordance with the situation, the inflow of the pool is in accordance with the situation, the inflow of the pool is in accordance with the situation, the inflow of the pool is in accordance with the situation, the inflow of the pool is in accordance with the situation, the inflow of the pool is affected, and the inflow of the pool is determined. The latter is in line with the decision to determine the problem. 2.1. The solution to the problem of determining the flow rate of the system is to solve the problem, and the method is used to determine the flow rate. 3. In recent years, the inflow of water from the pool has been measured for a long time. In recent years, the inflow into the pool has been measured for a long time, and the inflow has been measured for a long time. 4. If you want to use the water tank as a system, the accuracy of the system depends on the amount of water inflow to determine the standard temperature, and the discharge rate is determined and calculated. In order to analyze the results of the calculation, the meaning is determined to determine the relationship between the accuracy of the data and the accuracy of the data, and the balance point must be used to determine the accuracy of the accuracy of the data.