New Horizon of Travel Demand Analysis and Its Applications to Creating More Travel Demand

本文回顾了国内外旅游需求分析的研究现状，提出了面向未来世纪老龄化、少子化社会的旅游需求分析的新方向。传统的交通需求预测方法只适用于交通需求增长的情况（人口增长和/或经济增长）。这些模式将无法捕捉新时代的旅游需求。在分析出行需求时，应考虑以下因素：（1）替代燃料汽车;（2）人们为什么移动？（什么是旅游需求？）（3）时间利用，（4）出行行为，（5）动态分析，（6）老龄化社会，（7）信息技术，（8）城市规模，（9）市场营销。本课题主要研究面板数据分析方法。纵向或动态方法对于捕捉未来几年的旅行需求非常重要。

This study reviewed the state-of-the-art in travel demand analysis and proposed the new direction of travel demand analysis for the coming century which is characterized by aged and few-children society. Conventional travel demand forecasting method is only valid for the situation of travel demand increasing (by population growth and/or by economic growth). These models will fail to capture the travel demand for new era. Following elements should be involved in the analysis of travel demand : (1) alternative fuel vehicle, (2) why people move? (=What is travel demand? ), (3) time use, (4) travelbehavior, (5) dynamic analysis, (6)agedsociety, (7) information technology, (8) urban size, and (9) marketing.New approaches are introduced in this study (see project report). One of them, analysis of panel data, is mainly investigated in this project. Longitudinal or dynamic approach will be important for capturing travel demand in coming years.