A THEORETICAL ANALYSIS OF THE INTERNATIONAL INFLUENCE RESULTING FROM DOMESTIC FINANCIAL INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE POLYCY IN ORDER TO PREVENT FROM IT

1. 目的(1)通过一个包括私人银行在内的宏观模型分析金融不稳定的条件。(2)将其模型推广到两部门宏观模型。第一模型的特点(1)建立了财务方程。(2)建立了银行权益及其资产负债表调整方程。主要结论（长期不稳定条件）(1)银行贷款利率风险溢价和居民持有债券风险溢价对生产资本比具有弹性。(2)银行权益资本比小，贷款供求比大。(1)经济分为数量调整（垄断）部门和价格调整（竞争）部门。(2)垄断行业拥有两种金融工具；银行贷款及发行债券。(3)竞争部门只有银行贷款。(4)银行首先满足垄断部门的贷款要求，并将其剩余量借给竞争部门。主要结论（长期不稳定条件）：(1)生产资本比和债券利率对各部门的债务资本比和银行的权益资本比具有弹性。(2)竞争性部门的贸易条件对其债务资本比率没有弹性，而对银行的权益资本比率则有弹性。(1)研究成果已于2000年2月29日以论文形式提交给千叶大学。(2)两部门模型尚未推广到蒙代尔=弗莱明的两国模型。这一延期将于今年完成。

1. PURPOSE (1) To analyze the conditions of financial instability by a macro model which includes private banks. (2) To extend its model to two sector macro model.2. FEATURES OF FIRST MODEL (1) Finance equation is formulated. (2) Bank's equity and adjustment equation of its balance sheet are formulated.3. MAIN CONCLUSIONS (the conditions of long-run instability) (1) Risk premium put on loan interest rate by banks and risk premium put on holding of bonds by households are elastic with regard to production-capital ratio. (2) Bank's equity-capital ratio is small and ratio of loan supply to demand is large.4. FEATURES OF TWO SECTOR MODEL (1) Economy are divided into quantity adjustment (monopolistic) sector and price adjustment (competitive) sector. (2) Monopolistic sector have two financial instruments ; bank loan and issues of bonds. (3) Competitive sector only have bank loan. (4) Banks first meet the monopolistic sector's lending requirements and lend its residual volume to the competitive sector.5. MAIN CONCLUSIONS (the conditions of long-run instability) (1) production-capital ratio and bond rate are elastic with regards to debt-capital ratio of each sector and bank's equity-capital ratio. (2) Terms of trade for competitive sector are inelastic with regard to its debt-capital ratio and elastic with regard to bank's equity-capital ratio.6. VALUATION (1) Research results have been presented to Chiba University as a dissertation in February 29,2000. (2) Two sector model has not been extended to Mundell = Fleming's two country model. Such an extension will be completed in this year.